Genk
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genk
11th · 25 pts · 21 played
LDDLL
First leg2–2
1–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 20 pts · 21 played
LLWDW
Genk52.8%fair odds 1.89
Draw24.3%fair odds 4.11
Cercle Brugge22.8%fair odds 4.38
Expected goals1.79 – 1.11total 2.90
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genk ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.5 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genk goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.70
- 2–19.8%10.21
- 1–09.3%10.81
- 2–08.8%11.34
- 1–26.1%16.51
- 0–06.1%16.51
- 3–15.9%17.08
- 0–15.5%18.17
- 2–25.4%18.40
- 3–05.3%18.96
Winning margin
13.6%
Genk by 3+
fair 7.36
16.3%
Genk by 2
fair 6.12
22.9%
Genk by 1
fair 4.37
24.3%
Draw
fair 4.11
13.9%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 7.17
6.3%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 15.99
2.6%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 37.76
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
Genk goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 52.8% | 51.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Draw | 24.3% | 24.7% | -0.4 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 22.8% | 23.4% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 54.5% | +1.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.5% | 55.9% | +0.6 pp |
| Expected goals Genk | 1.79 | 1.75 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.11 | 1.11 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genk win52.8%1.89
- Draw24.3%4.11
- Cercle Brugge win22.8%4.38
- Double chance Genk or draw77.2%1.30
- Double chance Genk or Cercle Brugge75.7%1.32
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw47.2%2.12
- Draw no bet Genk69.8%1.43
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge30.2%3.31
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.06
- Over 1.579.2%1.26
- Over 2.555.5%1.80
- Over 3.533.1%3.02
- Over 4.516.9%5.92
- Under 1.520.8%4.81
- Under 2.544.5%2.25
- Under 3.566.9%1.50
Both teams to score
- Yes56.5%1.77
- No43.5%2.30
- Yes and over 2.545.0%2.22
- Genk win and yes25.9%3.86
- Draw and yes18.3%5.47
- Cercle Brugge win and yes12.3%8.15
Team goals
- Genk over 0.583.4%1.20
- Genk over 1.553.5%1.87
- Genk over 2.526.8%3.73
- Cercle Brugge over 0.567.0%1.49
- Cercle Brugge over 1.530.5%3.28
- Cercle Brugge over 2.510.2%9.84
- Genk clean sheet33.0%3.03
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet16.6%6.02
- Genk win to nil26.9%3.72
- Cercle Brugge win to nil10.6%9.46
Handicap
- Genk −1.529.9%3.34
- Genk −2.513.6%7.36
- Cercle Brugge +1.570.1%1.43
- Cercle Brugge +2.586.4%1.16
- Cercle Brugge −1.58.9%11.23
- Genk +1.591.1%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored173
Favourite won44.5%
Avg chance given to result37.4%
1X2 Brier0.630
Over 2.5 called right52.6%
BTTS called right52.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 38.1% | 37.5% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.9% | 34.5% |
| 50–60% | 38 | 54.6% | 57.9% |
| 60–70% | 15 | 64.7% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 135 of 173 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6371 | 0.6326 |
| Avg chance given to result | 37.3% | 38.0% |
| Favourite won | 43.7% | 42.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 135 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Antwerp 0–2 Charleroi53·25·22
- ✗OH Leuven 0–0 Union St. Gilloise22·24·54
- ✓Club Brugge KV 4–3 Zulte Waregem67·20·13
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 1–2 St. Truiden34·28·38
- ✗Standard Liege 0–4 Gent36·28·36
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 OH Leuven56·24·20
- ✓Charleroi 2–0 Standard Liege40·28·32
- ✗Dender 1–0 Antwerp29·27·44
- ✓Gent 4–2 Anderlecht37·27·36
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 1–0 KV Mechelen58·23·18
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 173 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.