Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Genk
7th · 35 pts · 25 played
LDWWW
First leg1–2
0–3Full time
Standard Liege
10th · 31 pts · 25 played
LLWLD
Our take
Genk were clear favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Genk. Genk had 2.8 days of rest, Standard Liege 7.7 and had to travel 37 km.
Away travel37 kmRest days2.8 · 7.7Matches / 14d3 · 2
Genk64%
Draw21%
Standard Liege15%
Genk57%
Draw24%
Standard Liege19%
Genk64%
Draw21%
Standard Liege15%
Genk57%
Draw23%
Standard Liege20%
Genk63%
Draw21%
Standard Liege16%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 40
Team strength
GenkStandard Liege
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
46
AttackIn forecast
29
50
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisStandard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkStandard Liege
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
88%
Scored inContext
56%
8%
Clean sheetsContext
28%
15.28
ShotsContext
9.40
5.68
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.21
37%
On target shareContext
33%
9.46
Shots in the boxContext
6.42
61%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.59
12.12
Shots allowedContext
14.16
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.76
3.30
BlocksContext
3.84
3.12
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.58
68%
Save rateContext
74%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
542
PassesContext
357
469
Accurate passesContext
276
87%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.79
10.24
FoulsContext
10.84
13.04
Fouls sufferedContext
12.08
1.36
Yellow cardsContext
2.04
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.16
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.51
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
+0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
100%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
8.20
6.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.56
46%
On target shareContext
28%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
69%
Box shareContext
66%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.00
Shots allowedContext
14.00
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
71%
Save rateContext
75%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
481
PassesContext
337
407
Accurate passesContext
251
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.74
9.50
FoulsContext
10.70
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,066 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Standard Liege
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel37 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Standard Liege |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 19 Feb | 7.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 37 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,066 km | 353 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.3 | 5.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
38D. Heymans
8B. Heynen
20K. Karetsas
10J. Ito
23A. Bibout
7J. Steuckers
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
21L. Pirard(G)
18H. Lawrence
4D. Bates
25I. Hautekiet
3Gustav Mortensen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
7T. Mohr
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.33points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-4
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.42
Standard Liege · Away
1.25points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-7
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | W 3–2 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Dender | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 AD 1–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 3–5 HL 1–2 A | L 0–3 AL 1–2 H |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 HL 0–4 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 0–3 A |
| Points | 35 of 72 · 1.46 per game | 28 of 72 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Genk wins0 draws2 Standard Liege wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 10 Aug 2025Standard Liege2–1Genk
- 10 Mar 2024Genk1–0Standard Liege
- 25 Nov 2023Standard Liege1–0Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 2.16 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 32% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 8% | 28% | |
| Failed to score | 12% | 44% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Genk | Standard Liege | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 2.20 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 9.46 | 9.54 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 14/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 8/24 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.28 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.56 | 1.92 | |
| Match total | 3.96 | 4.20 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 14/25 | 64% 16/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 48% 12/25 | |
| Genk | Standard Liege | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 9.78 | 9.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 3.80 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.78league 3.91
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+35%league 42%
Fouls24.8league 22.8
Penalties0.30league 0.30
Home wins43%league 41%
Genk6 with this referee
Record1-3-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- L17 Jan 26A · Zulte Waregem1–22
- D14 Sep 25A · Anderlecht1–13
- W15 Aug 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- D28 Jan 24A · St. Truiden1–15
- L4 Nov 23A · Antwerp2–34
Standard Liege4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L23 Jan 26H · Gent0–42
- W20 Oct 25H · Antwerp1–03
- D16 Dec 23H · Charleroi0–01
- W30 Sep 23A · OH Leuven2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk25 games · scored 36 · conceded 37
7
9
0-15
7
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
6
46-60
5
2
61-75
8
9
76-90
Standard Liege25 games · scored 21 · conceded 33
5
5
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
6
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
8
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
4
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
6
6
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
