Genk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genk were slight favourites.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 23). Genk usually keep the ball (64% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Genk had 15.9 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 7.9 and had to travel 146 km.
Away travel146 kmRest days15.9 · 7.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Genk56%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem20%
Genk54%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem21%
Genk56%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem20%
Genk48%
Draw26%
Zulte Waregem26%
Genk54%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem21%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genk)
No weather data yet
RefereeBram Van Driessche
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 27
Team strength
Genk
Zulte Waregem
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
46
AttackIn forecast
27
50
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenkZulte Waregem
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
100%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.50
ShotsContext
10.40
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
69%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
—
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.50
Shots allowedContext
15.20
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.50
BlocksContext
4.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
70%
Save rateContext
57%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
553
PassesContext
362
487
Accurate passesContext
292
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.50
FoulsContext
9.60
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.40
ShotsContext
10.40
5.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
35%
9.88
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
63%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.17
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.80
Shots allowedContext
15.20
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.30
BlocksContext
4.40
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
73%
Save rateContext
57%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
513
PassesContext
362
434
Accurate passesContext
292
85%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.74
10.70
FoulsContext
9.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genk
Rest15.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel146 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genk |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Aug | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 146 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 12.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genk
Confirmed XI
26T. Lawal(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
77Z. El Ouahdi
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
10J. Ito
20K. Karetsas
7J. Steuckers
29Robin Mirisola
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
5Jakob Kiilerich
6E. Lofolomo
3Anton Tanghe
55Y. Cappelle
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
12W. Paugain
22J. Opoku
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
36S. Ujka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genk+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genk · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Genk | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Genk | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
| Genk | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.80 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 4 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genk | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 11.80 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Genk | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 11.80 | 9.66 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.91 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 1/5 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bram Van Driessche 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.22league 3.68
Red cards0.26league 0.23
Cards 5+37%league 36%
Fouls21.8league 23.0
Penalties0.11league 0.34
Home wins48%league 48%
Genk3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D11 Feb 24A · KV Mechelen1–12
- W17 Dec 23H · Kortrijk4–00
- D3 Sep 23H · Anderlecht1–15
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genk4 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Zulte Waregem5 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem5 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
