Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Genoa had 5 days of rest, Como 5.1 and had to travel 156 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel156 kmRest days5 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa23%
Draw24%
Como53%
Genoa25%
Draw24%
Como50%
Genoa23%
Draw24%
Como54%
Genoa18%
Draw21%
Como61%
Genoa23%
Draw24%
Como52%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
Heat stress
26°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 2 km/h
- Humidity 76%
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 90
Team strength
Genoa
Como
32
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
23
AttackIn forecast
72
44
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaComo
0.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.62
Goals minus xGContext
+0.23
0%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.50
ShotsContext
20.50
1.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
16%
On target shareContext
29%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.00
63%
Box shareContext
63%
0%
ConversionContext
7%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
14.00
Shots allowedContext
15.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
5.00
BlocksContext
3.00
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
50%
Save rateContext
60%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
497
PassesContext
595
433
Accurate passesContext
533
87%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.64
Team ratingContext
6.90
8.00
FoulsContext
8.00
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
0.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
30%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.10
ShotsContext
16.10
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
27%
On target shareContext
32%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
59%
Box shareContext
68%
5%
ConversionContext
9%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.60
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
3.67
BlocksContext
3.11
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
70%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
422
PassesContext
502
351
Accurate passesContext
445
83%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.80
FoulsContext
11.10
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
LL
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 30 · 0 pts vs 2.4 for an average club · -1.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 5 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 5.1Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 156 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 804 km | 2,029 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1J. Bijlow(G)
77M. Ellertsson
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
8T. Baldanzi
22J. Vásquez
97M. Sow
20S. Sabelli
32M. Frendrup
18M. Osmajić
29L. Colombo
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
99T. Chalobah
4Jacobo Ramón
27Yan Couto
7L. da Cunha
5M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
11Assane Diao
9A. Douvikas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Como+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Como · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Genoa | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Napoli | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Genoa wins2 draws2 Como wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.25
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 26 Apr 2026Genoa0–2Como
- 15 Sep 2025Como1–1Genoa
- 27 Apr 2025Como1–0Genoa
- 7 Nov 2024Genoa1–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Genoa | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.40 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.00 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 0.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 2.00 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Genoa | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 8.70 | 8.30 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.70 | 3.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 90 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.92league 3.20
Red cards0.14league 0.00
Cards 5+39%league 15%
Fouls23.8league 23.0
Penalties0.34league 0.00
Home wins43%league 40%
Genoa7 with this referee
Record3-2-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W22 Feb 26H · Torino3–00
- D9 Nov 25H · Fiorentina2–22
- D15 Dec 24A · AC Milan0–02
- W4 Nov 24A · Parma1–05
- W22 Dec 23A · Sassuolo2–11
Como1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L15 Jan 26H · AC Milan1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa2 games · scored 0 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Como2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Como10 games · scored 15 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
