Genoa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Genoa22.2%fair odds 4.50
Draw24.9%fair odds 4.02
Como52.9%fair odds 1.89
Expected goals1.05 – 1.73total 2.78
Likeliest score1–111.8%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Como
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Genoa ↓ · Como → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Genoa goals, columns Como goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%8.44
- 0–110.1%9.87
- 1–29.8%10.25
- 0–29.3%10.74
- 0–06.8%14.75
- 2–15.9%16.96
- 1–05.9%16.99
- 1–35.6%17.73
- 0–35.4%18.58
- 2–25.1%19.56
Winning margin
2.4%
Genoa by 3+
fair 41.95
6.0%
Genoa by 2
fair 16.70
13.9%
Genoa by 1
fair 7.21
24.9%
Draw
fair 4.02
23.3%
Como by 1
fair 4.28
16.4%
Como by 2
fair 6.10
13.1%
Como by 3+
fair 7.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Genoa goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Como goals
18%0
31%1
27%2
15%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 22.2% | 22.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.7% | -0.8 pp |
| Como win | 52.9% | 51.6% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 50.1% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 52.5% | +1.6 pp |
| Expected goals Genoa | 1.05 | 1.02 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Como | 1.73 | 1.66 | +0.08 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Genoa win22.2%4.50
- Draw24.9%4.02
- Como win52.9%1.89
- Double chance Genoa or draw47.1%2.12
- Double chance Genoa or Como75.1%1.33
- Double chance Como or draw77.8%1.29
- Draw no bet Genoa29.6%3.38
- Draw no bet Como70.4%1.42
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.30
- Over 2.552.6%1.90
- Over 3.530.4%3.29
- Over 4.515.0%6.68
- Under 1.522.8%4.39
- Under 2.547.4%2.11
- Under 3.569.6%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Genoa win and yes11.4%8.79
- Draw and yes18.1%5.52
- Como win and yes24.6%4.07
Team goals
- Genoa over 0.564.9%1.54
- Genoa over 1.528.2%3.55
- Genoa over 2.58.9%11.19
- Como over 0.582.4%1.21
- Como over 1.551.7%1.93
- Como over 2.525.2%3.97
- Genoa clean sheet17.6%5.67
- Como clean sheet35.1%2.85
- Genoa win to nil10.9%9.21
- Como win to nil28.3%3.54
Handicap
- Genoa −1.58.4%11.95
- Genoa −2.52.4%41.95
- Como +1.591.6%1.09
- Como +2.597.6%1.02
- Como −1.529.5%3.39
- Genoa +1.570.5%1.42
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Serie A 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored20
Favourite won75.0%
Avg chance given to result49.8%
1X2 Brier0.432
Over 2.5 called right50.0%
BTTS called right35.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.3% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 9 | 45.8% | 55.6% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 56.4% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 61.8% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 73.0% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 88.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 10 of 20 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4065 | 0.4208 |
| Avg chance given to result | 51.2% | 50.7% |
| Favourite won | 80.0% | 80.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 10 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 20 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.