Genoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Genoa were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Frosinone. Genoa had 7.8 days of rest, Frosinone 6 and had to travel 471 km. Weather to note: warm.
Away travel471 kmRest days7.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Genoa46%
Draw26%
Frosinone28%
Genoa47%
Draw25%
Frosinone28%
Genoa46%
Draw26%
Frosinone28%
Genoa38%
Draw27%
Frosinone35%
Genoa45%
Draw25%
Frosinone29%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Genova)
Warm
28°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 14 km/h
- Humidity 49%
Referee · ItalyAntonio Rapuano
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 59
Team strength
Genoa
Frosinone
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
23
AttackIn forecast
41
44
DefenceIn forecast
25
21
Form indexContext
61
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFrosinone
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GenoaFrosinone
0.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.62
xGVia Att/Def
0.74
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.03
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+1.26
33%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.67
1.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
17%
On target shareContext
43%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
66%
Box shareContext
74%
3%
ConversionContext
17%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.67
16.00
Shots allowedContext
20.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
5.00
BlocksContext
6.33
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
53%
Save rateContext
77%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
451
PassesContext
261
391
Accurate passesContext
180
87%
Pass accuracyContext
69%
6.55
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.00
FoulsContext
18.00
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
15.33
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
—
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
—
40%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.20
2.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
26%
On target shareContext
36%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
62%
Box shareContext
62%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.43
13.00
Shots allowedContext
15.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.89
BlocksContext
4.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
79%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
424
PassesContext
311
354
Accurate passesContext
232
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.80
FoulsContext
13.20
13.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Genoa
LLL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km804 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 0 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -2.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Genoa |
Frosinone |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Serie A 2026-2027, 4 Sep | 6Serie A 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 471 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 804 km | 586 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1J. Bijlow(G)
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
27A. Marcandalli
77M. Ellertsson
97M. Sow
8T. Baldanzi
32M. Frendrup
3K. Ehizibue
18M. Osmajić
29L. Colombo
Frosinone
Confirmed XI
22L. Palmisani(G)
79G. Bracaglia
2G. Cittadini
3G. Calvani
20A. Oyono
73P. Masini
14Giacomo Calò
17G. Kvernadze
10R. Schmid
7F. Ghedjemis
9A. Raimondo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Frosinone
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Genoa+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Frosinone+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Genoa · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Frosinone · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Genoa wins1 draws1 Frosinone wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Mar 2024Genoa1–1Frosinone
- 26 Nov 2023Frosinone2–1Genoa
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Genoa | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.33 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 33% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Genoa | Frosinone | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 67% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 33% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 33% | |
| Games | 10 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Genoa | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 12.00 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.33 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 3.33 | 5.33 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 3/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Genoa | Frosinone | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 10.60 | 9.13 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Antonio Rapuano Italy · 59 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.44league 3.29
Red cards0.36league 0.00
Cards 5+47%league 16%
Fouls25.3league 22.5
Penalties0.25league 0.00
Home wins49%league 39%
Genoa5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W12 Apr 26H · Sassuolo2–13
- L29 Mar 25A · Juventus0–12
- W28 Dec 24A · Empoli2–12
- D7 Nov 24H · Como1–14
- L22 Sep 23A · Lecce0–13
Frosinone3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D21 Apr 24A · Torino0–02
- L16 Mar 24H · Lazio2–31
- L25 Feb 24A · Juventus2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Genoa3 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
3
76-90
Frosinone3 games · scored 6 · conceded 3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Frosinone10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
