Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
7th · 23 pts · 17 played
LDDLD
First leg2–1
0–2Full time
Antwerp
10th · 20 pts · 17 played
LWLWW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Gent had 7.8 days of rest, Antwerp 6.8 and had to travel 56 km.
Away travel56 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gent43%
Draw27%
Antwerp30%
Gent43%
Draw27%
Antwerp30%
Gent43%
Draw27%
Antwerp30%
Gent36%
Draw28%
Antwerp37%
Gent43%
Draw27%
Antwerp30%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 32
Team strength
GentAntwerp
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
46
AttackIn forecast
24
61
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentAntwerp
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.47
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.06
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
82%
Scored inContext
65%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
12.65
ShotsContext
10.76
4.47
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.06
35%
On target shareContext
38%
7.82
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
61%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.08
OffsidesContext
2.94
13.76
Shots allowedContext
14.41
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.93
BlocksContext
4.71
4.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.29
78%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
460
PassesContext
365
381
Accurate passesContext
291
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.93
10.47
FoulsContext
12.29
10.41
Fouls sufferedContext
13.12
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.24
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.22
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.50
ShotsContext
10.60
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
37%
On target shareContext
37%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
56%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.00
14.80
Shots allowedContext
14.50
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.56
BlocksContext
5.70
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.25
79%
Save rateContext
83%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
442
PassesContext
358
361
Accurate passesContext
280
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.50
FoulsContext
13.10
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel56 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 56 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 99 km | 173 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
8M. Skóraś
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
18M. Samoise
37A. Kadri
27T. De Vlieger
6O. Gandelman
45B. Goore
7A. Kanga
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
26R. Bozhinov
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
30C. Scott
78Xander Dierickx
16M. Benítez
24T. Somers
9M. Al Sahafi
18V. Janssen
7G. Kerk
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-2
- Scored
- 1.88
- Conceded
- 1.00
Antwerp · Away
0.75points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.38
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A |
| OH Leuven | L 0–4 A | W 3–1 H |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Points | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game | 20 of 48 · 1.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Gent wins2 draws0 Antwerp wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 14 Sep 2025Antwerp1–2Gent
- 25 Feb 2024Gent2–2Antwerp
- 27 Sep 2023Antwerp0–0Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.47 | 1.06 | |
| Match goals | 2.94 | 2.12 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 35% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 12% | |
| Both teams scored | 65% | 53% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 35% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Gent | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 1.80 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 5.18 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 9.12 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 9/15 | 53% 9/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 53% 8/15 | 29% 5/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 24% 4/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 2.35 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.12 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 4.64 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 53% 9/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 8/17 | 59% 10/17 | |
| Gent | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.63 | 9.50 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.10 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 32 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.47league 3.85
Red cards0.13league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 42%
Fouls22.5league 23.1
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins47%league 42%
Gent8 with this referee
Record2-4-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L23 Sep 25A · Anderlecht0–13
- D16 Aug 25A · KV Mechelen1–11
- L4 Feb 24A · Anderlecht0–14
- D3 Dec 23A · Genk2–22
- W29 Oct 23H · Standard Liege3–12
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Oct 25H · Club Brugge KV0–12
- D27 Sep 23H · Gent0–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent17 games · scored 25 · conceded 25
4
1
0-15
3
6
16-30
3
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
9
6
76-90
Antwerp17 games · scored 18 · conceded 18
3
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
3
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
