Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
5th · 36 pts · 25 played
WWDLW
First leg4–2
0–1Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 24 pts · 25 played
WDLWL
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Gent. Gent had 6.1 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 5.3 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days6.1 · 5.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Gent57%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge20%
Gent53%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge22%
Gent57%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge20%
Gent49%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge26%
Gent57%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge20%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 29
Team strength
GentCercle Brugge
38
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
46
AttackIn forecast
24
61
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentCercle Brugge
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.32
1.48
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
84%
Scored inContext
76%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.96
ShotsContext
12.04
4.48
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.17
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
8.71
66%
Box shareContext
71%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.35
OffsidesContext
2.83
13.64
Shots allowedContext
14.04
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.04
4.00
BlocksContext
3.50
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
73%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
437
PassesContext
350
360
Accurate passesContext
264
82%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.82
10.72
FoulsContext
10.64
10.84
Fouls sufferedContext
12.84
1.64
Yellow cardsContext
1.88
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.12
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.64
+0.43
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.90
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
33%
On target shareContext
35%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.44
68%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.57
OffsidesContext
3.11
13.90
Shots allowedContext
14.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
3.90
BlocksContext
3.90
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
66%
Save rateContext
71%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
385
PassesContext
308
309
Accurate passesContext
220
80%
Pass accuracyContext
72%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.50
FoulsContext
10.70
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel39 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 175 km | 247 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
57Matties Volckaert
3M. Paskotši
4D. Hashioka
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
11M. Sonko
37A. Kadri
8M. Skóraś
21M. Dean
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
13D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.67points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-4
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.25
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.42points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H |
| OH Leuven | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–2 A |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 33 of 72 · 1.38 per game | 24 of 72 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Gent wins0 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.00
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 28 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–4Gent
- 11 Feb 2024Gent1–2Cercle Brugge
- 22 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.32 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.48 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.12 | 2.92 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 92% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 48% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 64% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 16% | 24% | |
| Games | 25 | 25 |
| Gent | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.98 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.74 | 4.42 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.57 | 5.29 | |
| Match total | 10.31 | 9.71 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 54% 13/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 14/23 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 52% 12/23 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.76 | 2.04 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.92 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.68 | 3.84 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 11/25 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 10/25 | 28% 7/25 | |
| Gent | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.22 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.11 | 10.50 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.40 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.17league 3.94
Red cards0.10league 0.19
Cards 5+24%league 42%
Fouls20.2league 22.9
Penalties0.31league 0.30
Home wins41%league 41%
Gent4 with this referee
Record3-1-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D9 Nov 25H · Genk1–12
- W19 Sep 25H · Dender3–01
- W17 Mar 24H · Charleroi5–00
- W24 Sep 23H · AS Eupen2–12
Cercle Brugge4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D26 Oct 25H · Zulte Waregem1–10
- W23 Aug 25A · Standard Liege3–03
- L2 Mar 24H · KV Mechelen2–31
- L5 Nov 23H · Anderlecht0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent25 games · scored 41 · conceded 37
6
2
0-15
5
10
16-30
5
6
31-45
7
3
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
10
76-90
Cercle Brugge25 games · scored 33 · conceded 40
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
12
10
31-45
3
10
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 15 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
6
31-45
2
6
46-60
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
