Gent vs Dender – 19 Sep 2025

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Sep 19 · 19:45 Planet Group Arena, Gent

Gent 11th · 8 pts · 6 played WLDDW

3–0Full time

Dender 16th · 2 pts · 7 played LLLLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Gent were slight favourites.

Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 21). Gent had 5.3 days of rest, Dender 6.1 and had to travel 31 km.

Away travel31 kmRest days5.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Gent58%

Draw23%

Dender18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.95

Gent58%

Draw24%

Dender19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Gent58%

Draw23%

Dender18%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.95

Gent51%

Draw26%

Dender24%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07

Gent58%

Draw24%

Dender19%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.96

Over 2.5 54% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Gent)

No weather data yet

RefereeJan Boterberg

Cards per match 3.0
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 19

Team strength

Gent

Dender

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

46 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

46 AttackIn forecast 15

61 DefenceIn forecast 15

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Gent

Attack—

Defense risk—

Dender

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Gent

Dender

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.29

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.44 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

100% Scored inContext 29%

17% Clean sheetsContext 14%

14.17 ShotsContext 7.14

5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.43

37% On target shareContext 34%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

70% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 4%

2.60 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.00 Shots allowedContext 12.57

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

4.50 BlocksContext 2.71

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

73% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

465 PassesContext 418

384 Accurate passesContext 319

83% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.73

10.83 FoulsContext 9.43

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.14

This league season, per match · 6 and 7 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.29

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.43

1.35 xGVia Att/Def 0.58

1.33 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.29

80% Scored inContext 29%

30% Clean sheetsContext 14%

13.10 ShotsContext 7.14

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.43

34% On target shareContext 34%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

68% Box shareContext 68%

9% ConversionContext 4%

3.00 OffsidesContext 3.20

12.70 Shots allowedContext 12.57

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

4.13 BlocksContext 2.71

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.57

79% Save rateContext 67%

55% PossessionIn forecast 49%

468 PassesContext 418

389 Accurate passesContext 319

83% Pass accuracyContext 76%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.70 FoulsContext 9.43

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.14

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 7 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Gent

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km111 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Dender

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel31 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Gent	Dender
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Sep	6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	31 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	111 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Gent Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

33D. Roef(G)

44S. Van der Heyden 3M. Paskotši 29J. Duverne

8M. Skóraś 15A. Ito 17M. Delorge-Knieper 18M. Samoise

37A. Kadri 6O. Gandelman

7A. Kanga

Dender Confirmed XI

5-3-2

34M. Verrips(G)

88F. Ferraro 44L. De Fougerolles 21K. Cools 5L. Marijnissen 20D. Hrnčár

17N. Mbamba 24M. Viltard 16R. Květ

77B. Nsimba 19J. Attah Kadiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Gent Absences are shown before kick-off

Dender Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Gent+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Dender+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Gent · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Dender · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Gent	Dender
Union St. Gilloise	L 2–3 H	L 0–1 H
St. Truiden	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Points	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game	0 of 6 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Gent	Dender	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.29
Conceded per game	1.50	1.43
Match goals	2.83	1.71	2.82
Over 1.5	83%	57%
Over 2.5	50%	14%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	14%
Both teams scored	83%	29%	53%
Clean sheets	17%	14%
Failed to score	0%	71%
Games	6	7

	Gent	Dender	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.29
Conceded per game	1.50	1.43
Match goals	2.83	1.71	2.82
Over 1.5	83%	57%
Over 2.5	50%	14%	54%
Over 3.5	33%	14%
Both teams scored	83%	29%	53%
Clean sheets	17%	14%
Failed to score	0%	71%
Games	6	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Gent	Dender	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	2.43
Corners conceded	5.00	5.14
Match total	10.50	7.57	9.59
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.14
Opponent cards	2.17	1.86
Match total	3.67	3.00	3.93
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	50% 3/6	29% 2/7

	Gent	Dender	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	2.43
Corners conceded	5.00	5.14
Match total	10.30	7.57	9.59
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	14% 1/7
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	0% 0/7
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.14
Opponent cards	2.10	1.86
Match total	3.40	3.00	3.93
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	29% 2/7

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jan Boterberg 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.84league 3.69

Red cards0.16league 0.24

Cards 5+16%league 39%

Fouls19.6league 23.0

Penalties0.26league 0.39

Home wins47%league 44%

Gent2 with this referee

Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

W17 Mar 24H · Charleroi5–00
W24 Sep 23H · AS Eupen2–12

Dender

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.