Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Gent had 7.1 days of rest, Genk 2.9 and had to travel 125 km.
Away travel125 kmRest days7.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Gent42%
Draw26%
Genk31%
Gent42%
Draw27%
Genk31%
Gent42%
Draw26%
Genk31%
Gent35%
Draw27%
Genk39%
Gent42%
Draw27%
Genk31%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeJan Boterberg
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 22
Team strength
Gent
Genk
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
46
AttackIn forecast
46
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentGenk
1.69
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
85%
Scored inContext
92%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
13.00
ShotsContext
15.38
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
37%
On target shareContext
35%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
64%
Box shareContext
61%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
11.46
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
4.10
BlocksContext
3.17
4.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
76%
Save rateContext
71%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
479
PassesContext
548
400
Accurate passesContext
479
83%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.54
FoulsContext
10.62
10.77
Fouls sufferedContext
13.54
1.62
Yellow cardsContext
1.62
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.60
ShotsContext
13.50
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
38%
On target shareContext
38%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
65%
Box shareContext
62%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
1.40
OffsidesContext
2.33
13.80
Shots allowedContext
12.10
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.75
BlocksContext
3.88
4.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
79%
Save rateContext
74%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
478
PassesContext
507
401
Accurate passesContext
435
84%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.92
Team ratingContext
7.00
10.50
FoulsContext
11.30
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km143 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel125 km3,072 km in 14d
Schedule load33%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 33 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 125 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 143 km | 3,072 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 13.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
2S. Kotto
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
6O. Gandelman
45B. Goore
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
34Adrian Palacios
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
44J. Kongolo
8B. Heynen
17P. Hrošovský
19Y. Medina
38D. Heymans
20K. Karetsas
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
2.17points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 2.17
- Conceded
- 0.83
Genk · Away
1.57points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Gent | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | L 0–4 A | W 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | W 3–2 H |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 2–3 H | L 1–2 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 19 of 36 · 1.58 per game | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Gent wins2 draws0 Genk wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 3 Dec 2023Genk2–2Gent
- 8 Oct 2023Gent1–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.69 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 2.69 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 85% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 62% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 15% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 85% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 8% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Gent | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.30 | 2.50 | 2.79 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.08 | 3.69 | |
| Match total | 9.91 | 9.15 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 58% 7/12 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 6/12 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 42% 5/12 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.77 | 1.69 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.23 | 2.85 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.54 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 77% 10/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 54% 7/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Gent | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 4.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 8.20 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jan Boterberg 22 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.82league 3.84
Red cards0.14league 0.21
Cards 5+18%league 41%
Fouls19.4league 23.1
Penalties0.23league 0.28
Home wins50%league 45%
Gent3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W19 Sep 25H · Dender3–01
- W17 Mar 24H · Charleroi5–00
- W24 Sep 23H · AS Eupen2–12
Genk1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W22 Oct 23H · KV Mechelen4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent13 games · scored 22 · conceded 21
3
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
9
5
76-90
Genk13 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
4
5
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 18 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
