Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
8th · 36 pts · 27 played
DLWLL
First leg1–1
3–1Full time
KV Mechelen
5th · 42 pts · 27 played
DWLWW
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards KV Mechelen. Gent had 7.1 days of rest, KV Mechelen 8 and had to travel 53 km.
Away travel53 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Gent41%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen32%
Gent43%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen30%
Gent41%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen32%
Gent34%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen39%
Gent41%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen32%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 42
Team strength
GentKV Mechelen
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
46
AttackIn forecast
18
61
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentKV Mechelen
1.52
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.52
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.11
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
78%
Scored inContext
85%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.70
ShotsContext
9.85
4.26
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.77
34%
On target shareContext
37%
8.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
65%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
2.32
OffsidesContext
2.39
13.93
Shots allowedContext
14.04
4.81
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.96
BlocksContext
4.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.16
72%
Save rateContext
85%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
432
PassesContext
399
354
Accurate passesContext
325
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.52
FoulsContext
10.30
10.74
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.52
Yellow cardsContext
2.26
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.70
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
9.10
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.56
31%
On target shareContext
35%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.56
71%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.14
14.20
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.67
4.00
BlocksContext
2.89
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
60%
Save rateContext
78%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
385
PassesContext
408
310
Accurate passesContext
329
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.96
10.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km250 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel53 km127 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 53 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 250 km | 127 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
57Matties Volckaert
4D. Hashioka
20Tiago Araújo
22Leonardo Lopes
27T. De Vlieger
8M. Skóraś
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
21M. Dean
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
33T. St. Jago
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
19A. Mrabti
7T. Koudou
28B. Boersma
9M. van Brederode
27K. Van Rafelghem
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.54points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-5
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 1.23
KV Mechelen · Away
1.62points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-4
- Scored
- 1.38
- Conceded
- 1.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 HW 1–0 A |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–1 HW 4–2 A | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Charleroi | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| OH Leuven | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | W 2–0 AW 3–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Anderlecht | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 2–0 HL 1–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Points | 35 of 78 · 1.35 per game | 41 of 78 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Gent wins1 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025KV Mechelen1–1Gent
- 19 Jan 2024Gent1–2KV Mechelen
- 6 Aug 2023KV Mechelen0–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.52 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.52 | 1.11 | |
| Match goals | 3.04 | 2.44 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 37% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 15% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Gent | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.84 | 4.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.68 | 5.88 | |
| Match total | 10.52 | 10.57 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 68% 17/25 | 65% 17/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 16/25 | 58% 15/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 14/25 | 46% 12/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.26 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.78 | |
| Match total | 3.67 | 4.04 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 12/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 11/27 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Gent | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 4.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 5.11 | |
| Match total | 11.60 | 10.00 | 9.92 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 4.40 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.86
Red cards0.31league 0.19
Cards 5+36%league 41%
Fouls24.6league 22.7
Penalties0.31league 0.31
Home wins43%league 40%
Gent4 with this referee
Record1-2-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W23 Jan 26A · Standard Liege4–00
- D31 Aug 25H · Club Brugge KV1–13
- L11 Feb 24H · Cercle Brugge1–21
- D26 Nov 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–12
KV Mechelen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Feb 26H · Antwerp2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent27 games · scored 41 · conceded 41
6
3
0-15
5
10
16-30
5
7
31-45
7
4
46-60
4
6
61-75
14
11
76-90
KV Mechelen27 games · scored 36 · conceded 30
7
2
0-15
5
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
7
61-75
8
10
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
5
5
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
