Gent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Gent
5th · 33 pts · 23 played
LWWWD
First leg0–4
1–3Full time
OH Leuven
15th · 22 pts · 23 played
LDLDD
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for OH Leuven. Gent had 8 days of rest, OH Leuven 6.1 and had to travel 72 km.
Away travel72 kmRest days8 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Gent56%
Draw25%
OH Leuven19%
Gent58%
Draw24%
OH Leuven19%
Gent56%
Draw25%
OH Leuven19%
Gent48%
Draw27%
OH Leuven25%
Gent56%
Draw24%
OH Leuven20%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gent)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 21
Team strength
GentOH Leuven
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
46
AttackIn forecast
17
61
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GentOH Leuven
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.91
1.39
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.39
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
83%
Scored inContext
65%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.65
ShotsContext
13.00
4.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.36
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.45
64%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
7%
2.38
OffsidesContext
1.68
13.39
Shots allowedContext
12.35
4.74
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.90
BlocksContext
2.95
3.59
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
75%
Save rateContext
72%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
442
PassesContext
339
364
Accurate passesContext
261
82%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.83
FoulsContext
16.09
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
3.04
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.54
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.20
ShotsContext
14.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
33%
On target shareContext
33%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
65%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
5%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.56
13.90
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.70
BlocksContext
3.00
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
74%
Save rateContext
78%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
393
PassesContext
348
318
Accurate passesContext
267
81%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.20
FoulsContext
15.90
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Gent
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km142 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
OH Leuven
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel72 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Gent |
OH Leuven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Jan | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 72 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 142 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
57Matties Volckaert
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
24H. Hong
7A. Kanga
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
14H. Teklab
30T. Akimoto
34R. Nyakossi
28E. Pletinckx
27Óscar Gil
7T. Verlinden
24Ł. Łakomy
8S. Schrijvers
10Y. Maziz
19C. Ikwuemesi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Gent+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Gent · Home
1.82points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-3
- Scored
- 1.91
- Conceded
- 1.09
OH Leuven · Away
1.00points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-6
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.55
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Gent | OH Leuven |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Standard Liege | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Anderlecht | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H | D 0–0 HL 0–5 A |
| St. Truiden | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Genk | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–4 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | W 2–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 4–2 A | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Dender | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Points | 33 of 66 · 1.50 per game | 19 of 66 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Gent wins1 draws1 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 2 Nov 2025OH Leuven4–0Gent
- 21 Dec 2023Gent4–0OH Leuven
- 17 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–1Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Gent | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 0.91 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.39 | 1.39 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.30 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 48% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 35% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Gent | OH Leuven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 1.90 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Gent | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.71 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.32 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 9.91 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 12/21 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 3.09 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.87 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 5.57 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 10/23 | 83% 19/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 39% 9/23 | 61% 14/23 | |
| Gent | OH Leuven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 10.80 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 5.40 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.86league 3.87
Red cards0.19league 0.20
Cards 5+43%league 41%
Fouls23.0league 22.9
Penalties0.38league 0.29
Home wins24%league 40%
GentNo previous matches with this referee.
OH Leuven1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D25 Oct 25A · KV Mechelen1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Gent23 games · scored 37 · conceded 32
5
2
0-15
5
8
16-30
5
6
31-45
5
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
14
9
76-90
OH Leuven23 games · scored 21 · conceded 32
3
6
0-15
6
16-30
5
5
31-45
2
5
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
