Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 52). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Athletic Club. Getafe had 14.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 13.8 and had to travel 336 km.
Away travel336 kmRest days14.9 · 13.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Getafe35%
Draw31%
Athletic Club34%
Getafe39%
Draw27%
Athletic Club34%
Getafe34%
Draw31%
Athletic Club35%
Getafe29%
Draw31%
Athletic Club41%
Getafe36%
Draw29%
Athletic Club35%
Over 2.5 37%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJuan Martinez Munuera
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 42
Team strength
Getafe
Athletic Club
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
59
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
27
AttackIn forecast
51
59
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeAthletic Club
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.07
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
0.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
59%
Scored inContext
66%
28%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
9.03
ShotsContext
13.83
2.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.62
30%
On target shareContext
33%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
9.56
59%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.69
OffsidesContext
2.41
10.59
Shots allowedContext
9.48
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.38
BlocksContext
2.39
3.26
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.93
79%
Save rateContext
68%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
284
PassesContext
404
197
Accurate passesContext
325
70%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.73
13.72
FoulsContext
12.83
14.34
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.97
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.01
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.90
ShotsContext
14.30
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
33%
On target shareContext
33%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
73%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.78
OffsidesContext
3.33
11.10
Shots allowedContext
8.70
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.33
BlocksContext
1.86
3.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
84%
Save rateContext
63%
36%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
260
PassesContext
372
176
Accurate passesContext
290
68%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.72
13.90
FoulsContext
15.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
3.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel336 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.9La Liga 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 13.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 336 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 7.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
22Domingos Duarte
2D. Dakonam
15Sebastián Boselli
10M. Satriano
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
23Adrian Liso
19L. Vázquez
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
5Yeray
3Dani Vivian
18Mikel Jauregizar
30Alejandro Rego Mora
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
9I. Williams
11Gorka Guruzeta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Athletic Club-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.29points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-6
- Scored
- 0.86
- Conceded
- 0.79
Athletic Club · Away
0.86points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-8
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 1.71
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | W 2–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Real Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Villarreal | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 35 of 84 · 1.25 per game | 38 of 84 · 1.36 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
1 Getafe wins6 draws3 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.80 – 1.50
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets30% · 40%
- 25 Oct 2025Athletic Club0–1Getafe
- 15 May 2025Getafe0–2Athletic Club
- 15 Aug 2024Athletic Club1–1Getafe
- 3 May 2024Getafe0–2Athletic Club
- 27 Sep 2023Athletic Club2–2Getafe
- 1 Apr 2023Athletic Club0–0Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.07 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 1.93 | 2.52 | 2.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 72% | |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 48% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 34% | 52% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 28% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 34% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Getafe | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.60 | 3.10 | 2.16 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 37% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.28 | 5.31 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.72 | 3.83 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.14 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 14/29 | 66% 19/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 11/29 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 9/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.21 | 2.34 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.28 | 1.93 | |
| Match total | 5.49 | 4.27 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 76% 22/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 66% 19/29 | 41% 12/29 | |
| Getafe | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 8.40 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.70 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 4.60 | 4.49 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Juan Martinez Munuera Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.38league 4.23
Red cards0.21league 0.28
Cards 5+45%league 47%
Fouls26.2league 24.5
Penalties0.40league 0.36
Home wins45%league 48%
Getafe3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Feb 26A · Alaves2–05
- L24 May 25H · Celta Vigo1–24
- W28 Aug 23H · Alaves1–01
Athletic Club5 with this referee
Record2-0-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.8
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W25 Aug 25H · Rayo Vallecano1–00
- L20 Apr 25A · Real Madrid0–12
- L27 Apr 24A · Atletico Madrid1–32
- W20 Dec 23H · Las Palmas1–01
- L22 Oct 23A · Barcelona0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe29 games · scored 25 · conceded 31
1
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
3
9
76-90
Athletic Club28 games · scored 32 · conceded 39
3
5
0-15
3
1
16-30
9
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
9
10
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
