Getafe vs Atletico Madrid – 23 Nov 2025

La Liga Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 23 · 17:30 Estadio Coliseum, Getafe

Getafe 7th · 17 pts · 12 played LLWWL

0–1Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 25 pts · 12 played DWWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 48). Absences weigh more on Atletico Madrid. Getafe had 14 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 15 and had to travel 13 km.

Away travel13 kmRest days14 · 15Matches / 14d1 · 0

Getafe21%

Draw26%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 0.94 – 1.66

Getafe20%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid55%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.79

Getafe20%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid55%

Expected goals 0.91 – 1.68

Getafe16%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid61%

Expected goals 0.84 – 1.86

Getafe21%

Draw25%

Atletico Madrid54%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.77

Over 2.5 48% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Getafe)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Cards per match 4.9
Penalties per match 0.44
Matches 32

Team strength

Getafe

Atletico Madrid

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

27 AttackIn forecast 82

59 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Getafe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Getafe

Atletico Madrid

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.92

0.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

0.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.22

67% Scored inContext 100%

25% Clean sheetsContext 33%

8.75 ShotsContext 13.67

2.91 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83

31% On target shareContext 43%

4.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.17

48% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 15%

2.82 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.92 Shots allowedContext 9.25

3.92 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.83

2.18 BlocksContext 2.10

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.09

77% Save rateContext 72%

41% PossessionIn forecast 55%

287 PassesContext 519

201 Accurate passesContext 450

70% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.94

13.25 FoulsContext 10.92

15.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.67

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

0.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.49

60% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

8.70 ShotsContext 14.30

2.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

26% On target shareContext 42%

4.75 Shots in the boxContext 10.10

48% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 18%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.57

9.80 Shots allowedContext 10.50

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.20

2.22 BlocksContext 2.56

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

71% Save rateContext 67%

43% PossessionIn forecast 53%

297 PassesContext 490

209 Accurate passesContext 426

71% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.00 FoulsContext 10.30

15.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10

2.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Getafe

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,100 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel13 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	14La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Nov	15La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	13 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,100 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 0 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Getafe Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

13David Soria(G)

16Diego Rico 22Domingos Duarte 3A. Abqar 21Juan Iglesias

2D. Dakonam

6Mario Martín 8M. Arambarri 5Luis Milla 23Adrian Liso

9Borja Mayoral

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1J. Musso(G)

3M. Ruggeri 15C. Lenglet 2J. Giménez 16N. Molina

6Koke

23N. González 10Álex Baena 8Pablo Barrios 14Marcos Llorente

19J. Alvarez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Getafe Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Getafe+1.0 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Atletico Madrid-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Getafe · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-1
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 0.80

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 7 this season

Opponent	Getafe	Atletico Madrid
Mallorca	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–1 H	W 5–2 H
Osasuna	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 H
Levante	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 H
Alaves	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 H
Celta Vigo	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 A
Points	8 of 21 · 1.14 per game	15 of 21 · 2.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

1 Getafe wins3 draws6 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.90 Over 2.560% Both scored50% Clean sheets10% · 50%

9 Mar 2025Getafe2–1Atletico Madrid
15 Dec 2024Atletico Madrid1–0Getafe
15 May 2024Getafe0–3Atletico Madrid
19 Dec 2023Atletico Madrid3–3Getafe
4 Feb 2023Atletico Madrid1–1Getafe
15 Aug 2022Getafe0–3Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.17	0.92
Match goals	2.17	2.92	2.60
Over 1.5	75%	92%
Over 2.5	42%	42%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	25%
Both teams scored	42%	67%	50%
Clean sheets	25%	33%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	12	12

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	2.20
Conceded per game	1.30	0.80
Match goals	2.10	3.00	2.60
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	30%
Both teams scored	40%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	40%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	7.42
Corners conceded	3.75	3.00
Match total	8.75	10.42	9.72
Over 8.5	42% 5/12	67% 8/12
Over 9.5	33% 4/12	42% 5/12
Over 10.5	25% 3/12	42% 5/12
Cards
Cards	2.83	2.17
Opponent cards	2.08	2.50
Match total	4.91	4.67	4.25
Over 3.5	75% 9/12	75% 9/12
Over 4.5	58% 7/12	42% 5/12

	Getafe	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	7.30
Corners conceded	3.30	3.20
Match total	8.70	10.50	9.72
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.90	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	2.30
Match total	4.90	4.30	4.25
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 32 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.53league 4.02

Red cards0.34league 0.28

Cards 5+63%league 44%

Fouls26.1league 24.5

Penalties0.44league 0.35

Home wins53%league 48%

Getafe3 with this referee

Record2-0-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L15 May 25H · Athletic Club0–21
W27 Apr 24A · Almeria3–14
W8 Dec 23H · Valencia1–03

Atletico Madrid1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W21 Oct 23A · Celta Vigo3–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.