Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Barcelona were slight favourites.
Barcelona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (92 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Getafe had 2.8 days of rest, Barcelona 2.8 and had to travel 510 km.
Away travel510 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe18%
Draw24%
Barcelona57%
Getafe16%
Draw22%
Barcelona62%
Getafe17%
Draw24%
Barcelona59%
Getafe14%
Draw22%
Barcelona65%
Getafe20%
Draw24%
Barcelona56%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 34
Team strength
Getafe
Barcelona
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
92
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
93
27
AttackIn forecast
97
59
DefenceIn forecast
92
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisBarcelona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeBarcelona
0.88
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.66
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.94
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
2.42
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
59%
Scored inContext
100%
31%
Clean sheetsContext
41%
8.78
ShotsContext
19.22
2.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
5.33
Shots in the boxContext
12.41
59%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
2.69
OffsidesContext
2.59
10.78
Shots allowedContext
8.88
3.94
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.66
2.62
BlocksContext
2.29
3.24
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
78%
Save rateContext
74%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
69%
279
PassesContext
645
192
Accurate passesContext
580
69%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.12
14.16
FoulsContext
9.69
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.84
3.09
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.16
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.93
xGVia Att/Def
1.96
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
7.80
ShotsContext
14.30
3.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.40
37%
On target shareContext
45%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.40
69%
Box shareContext
72%
15%
ConversionContext
17%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.22
12.50
Shots allowedContext
8.90
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.00
BlocksContext
2.25
3.63
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
83%
Save rateContext
71%
34%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
236
PassesContext
589
151
Accurate passesContext
528
64%
Pass accuracyContext
90%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.08
15.60
FoulsContext
9.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
4.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.30
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,331 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Barcelona
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel510 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Barcelona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr | 2.8La Liga 2025-2026, 22 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 510 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,331 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
26Davinchi
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
15Sebastián Boselli
21Juan Iglesias
6Mario Martín
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
20V. Birmančević
10M. Satriano
Barcelona
Confirmed XI
13Joan García(G)
2João Cancelo
18Gerard Martín
5Pau Cubarsí
23J. Koundé
8Pedri
6Gavi
16Fermín López
20Dani Olmo
19R. Bardghji
9R. Lewandowski
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Barcelona
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.8 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Barcelona-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.40points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-6
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 0.73
Barcelona · Away
2.07points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-4
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Levante | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | W 1–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Real Betis | W 2–0 HL 0–4 A | W 5–3 A |
| Real Madrid | W 1–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A | W 5–2 HL 1–4 A |
| Villarreal | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | W 1–0 HW 4–2 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 6–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 AW 3–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 3–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 3–0 HW 3–1 A |
| Points | 44 of 93 · 1.42 per game | 79 of 93 · 2.55 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Getafe wins4 draws6 Barcelona wins
Goals per game0.40 – 1.70
Over 2.540%
Both scored30%
Clean sheets30% · 70%
- 21 Sep 2025Barcelona3–0Getafe
- 18 Jan 2025Getafe1–1Barcelona
- 25 Sep 2024Barcelona1–0Getafe
- 24 Feb 2024Barcelona4–0Getafe
- 13 Aug 2023Getafe0–0Barcelona
- 16 Apr 2023Getafe0–0Barcelona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.88 | 2.66 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.94 | |
| Match goals | 1.88 | 3.59 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 28% | 78% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 3% | 44% | |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 59% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 31% | 41% | |
| Failed to score | 41% | 0% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| Getafe | Barcelona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 3.20 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.16 | 6.97 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.78 | 4.26 | |
| Match total | 8.94 | 11.23 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 16/32 | 81% 25/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 34% 11/32 | 65% 20/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 28% 9/32 | 55% 17/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.34 | 1.44 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.69 | |
| Match total | 5.59 | 4.13 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 25/32 | 47% 15/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 66% 21/32 | 38% 12/32 | |
| Getafe | Barcelona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.20 | 9.62 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 4.50 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 6.90 | 4.60 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.94league 4.27
Red cards0.12league 0.28
Cards 5+41%league 48%
Fouls23.9league 24.5
Penalties0.38league 0.37
Home wins47%league 49%
Getafe2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Mar 26H · Real Betis2–04
- L9 Jan 26H · Real Sociedad1–22
Barcelona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W6 Dec 25A · Real Betis5–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe32 games · scored 28 · conceded 32
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
7
6
31-45
7
5
46-60
5
5
61-75
4
10
76-90
Barcelona32 games · scored 85 · conceded 30
15
5
0-15
9
4
16-30
16
10
31-45
13
2
46-60
14
3
61-75
18
6
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
5
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
4
1
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
