Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Espanyol were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 47). Getafe had 7.3 days of rest, Espanyol 6.1 and had to travel 503 km.
Away travel503 kmRest days7.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Getafe39%
Draw29%
Espanyol32%
Getafe39%
Draw27%
Espanyol33%
Getafe38%
Draw29%
Espanyol33%
Getafe32%
Draw29%
Espanyol39%
Getafe40%
Draw27%
Espanyol33%
Over 2.5 43%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJesus Gil Manzano
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 42
Team strength
Getafe
Espanyol
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
27
AttackIn forecast
36
59
DefenceIn forecast
51
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeEspanyol
0.87
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.27
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.07
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
60%
Scored inContext
80%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.87
ShotsContext
12.80
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
34%
4.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
50%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.69
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
12.27
4.07
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.43
BlocksContext
3.67
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
80%
Save rateContext
79%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
285
PassesContext
348
199
Accurate passesContext
280
70%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.83
13.47
FoulsContext
14.13
15.13
Fouls sufferedContext
11.93
2.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.38
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.10
ShotsContext
14.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
26%
On target shareContext
34%
4.56
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
48%
Box shareContext
66%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.14
10.30
Shots allowedContext
10.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
2.67
BlocksContext
3.40
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.89
84%
Save rateContext
81%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
289
PassesContext
355
198
Accurate passesContext
287
68%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.85
12.90
FoulsContext
14.10
15.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km623 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Espanyol
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel503 km1,801 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.3La Liga 2025-2026, 6 Dec | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 503 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 623 km | 1,801 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
22Domingos Duarte
3A. Abqar
17Kiko Femenía
18Alex Sancris
8M. Arambarri
2D. Dakonam
21Juan Iglesias
6Mario Martín
23Adrian Liso
Espanyol
Confirmed XI
13M. Dmitrović(G)
22Carlos Romero
6L. Cabrera
5F. Calero Villa
23O. El Hilali
11Pere Milla
8Edu Expósito
4Urko González
17Jofre Carreras
19Kike García
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Espanyol
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Espanyol-0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.57points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.71
Espanyol · Away
1.33points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 3–2 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Valencia | L 0–3 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game | 23 of 36 · 1.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Getafe wins0 draws4 Espanyol wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 18 Apr 2025Espanyol1–0Getafe
- 9 Dec 2024Getafe1–0Espanyol
- 30 Apr 2023Espanyol1–0Getafe
- 15 Jan 2023Getafe1–2Espanyol
- 5 Mar 2022Espanyol2–0Getafe
- 31 Oct 2021Getafe2–1Espanyol
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.87 | 1.27 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.07 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 47% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 47% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 15 | 15 |
| Getafe | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.00 | 2.39 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 43% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 4.27 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.07 | 4.47 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 8.74 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 5/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 4/15 | 33% 5/15 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.93 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.53 | |
| Match total | 5.13 | 4.53 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 12/15 | 67% 10/15 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 9/15 | 53% 8/15 | |
| Getafe | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.50 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.60 | 9.61 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.70 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jesus Gil Manzano Spain · 42 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.31league 4.12
Red cards0.26league 0.28
Cards 5+48%league 46%
Fouls24.5league 24.6
Penalties0.43league 0.33
Home wins38%league 48%
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L3 May 24H · Athletic Club0–20
EspanyolNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe15 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
Espanyol15 games · scored 19 · conceded 16
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
5
3
46-60
2
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
4
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
