Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Getafe were slight favourites.
Getafe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 37). Getafe had 6.1 days of rest, Girona 6.3 and had to travel 580 km.
Away travel580 kmRest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe49%
Draw27%
Girona24%
Getafe51%
Draw26%
Girona24%
Getafe49%
Draw27%
Girona24%
Getafe41%
Draw28%
Girona30%
Getafe51%
Draw25%
Girona24%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJose Maria Sanchez Martinez
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 40
Team strength
Getafe
Girona
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
27
AttackIn forecast
49
59
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGirona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeGirona
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.90
ShotsContext
8.80
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
42%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
47%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.33
BlocksContext
3.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
80%
Save rateContext
66%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
282
PassesContext
405
196
Accurate passesContext
341
69%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.50
FoulsContext
10.10
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
0.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.90
ShotsContext
8.80
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
32%
On target shareContext
42%
4.25
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
47%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
2.33
BlocksContext
3.90
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
80%
Save rateContext
66%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
282
PassesContext
405
196
Accurate passesContext
341
69%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.50
FoulsContext
10.10
15.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km671 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Girona
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel580 km172 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Girona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 25 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 580 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 671 km | 172 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
2D. Dakonam
22Domingos Duarte
17Kiko Femenía
20Coba
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
21Juan Iglesias
23Adrian Liso
9Borja Mayoral
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
3Joel Roca
18A. Ounahi
23Iván Martín
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Girona
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Girona+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.75
Girona · Away
0.50points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 2.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | D 3–3 H |
| Valencia | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 13 of 21 · 1.86 per game | 6 of 21 · 0.86 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Getafe wins0 draws3 Girona wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 33%
- 14 Feb 2025Girona1–2Getafe
- 10 Nov 2024Getafe0–1Girona
- 16 Mar 2024Getafe1–0Girona
- 20 Aug 2023Girona3–0Getafe
- 4 Mar 2023Getafe3–2Girona
- 22 Aug 2022Girona3–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Getafe | Girona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 11.00 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Getafe | Girona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 7.90 | 11.00 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez Spain · 40 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.45league 4.13
Red cards0.30league 0.27
Cards 5+48%league 46%
Fouls24.0league 24.8
Penalties0.20league 0.34
Home wins50%league 45%
Getafe3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.5.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Apr 25H · Real Madrid0–13
- L21 Jan 24A · Osasuna2–34
- D8 Oct 23A · Celta Vigo2–29
Girona3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L14 May 24H · Villarreal0–11
- L19 Feb 24A · Athletic Club2–32
- W27 Sep 23A · Villarreal2–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 9 · conceded 22
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
3
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
