Getafe vs Malaga – 20 Sep 2026

La Liga Gameweek 7 Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 Estadio Coliseum, Getafe

Getafe 17th · 5 pts · 6 played WLDDL

1–0Full time

Malaga 20th · 3 pts · 6 played DLDDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Getafe were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Malaga. Getafe had 2.8 days of rest, Malaga 2.7 and had to travel 403 km. Weather to note: warm.

Away travel403 kmRest days2.8 · 2.7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Getafe41%

Draw27%

Malaga32%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.14

Getafe46%

Draw25%

Malaga29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Getafe40%

Draw27%

Malaga32%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.14

Getafe34%

Draw27%

Malaga39%

Expected goals 1.18 – 1.28

Getafe42%

Draw27%

Malaga32%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.16

Over 2.5 45% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Getafe)

27°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 39%

Warm

Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.36
Matches 47

Team strength

Getafe

Malaga

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

27 AttackIn forecast 28

59 DefenceIn forecast 31

35 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Getafe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Malaga

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Getafe

Malaga

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.17 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83

0.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.39

50% Scored inContext 50%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

10.33 ShotsContext 9.83

2.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 1.67

19% On target shareContext 17%

5.33 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

51% Box shareContext 62%

5% ConversionContext 5%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.60

13.67 Shots allowedContext 14.00

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

3.50 BlocksContext 3.83

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

70% Save rateContext 67%

40% PossessionIn forecast 50%

313 PassesContext 491

233 Accurate passesContext 427

74% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.50 FoulsContext 12.33

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.70

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

0.72 xGVia Att/Def 0.89

1.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.78

-0.02 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

50% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.70 ShotsContext 10.80

2.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

24% On target shareContext 26%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.70

53% Box shareContext 65%

7% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.25

11.80 Shots allowedContext 12.90

4.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

2.90 BlocksContext 3.30

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

76% Save rateContext 72%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

311 PassesContext 470

230 Accurate passesContext 403

74% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.83

14.80 FoulsContext 12.00

14.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Getafe WLDDL

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km757 km in 14d

Schedule load23%Moderate

Form 35 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

L17 SepA · Real Betis0–10.8 xPts
D13 SepH · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.4 xPts
D7 SepH · Celta Vigo1–11.6 xPts
L31 AugA · Osasuna0–11.0 xPts
W23 AugH · Racing Santander1–01.5 xPts

Malaga DLDDL

Rest2.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel403 km1,431 km in 14d

Schedule load29%Moderate

Form 24 · 3 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected

L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts
D6 SepH · Levante0–01.4 xPts
L30 AugA · Real Madrid0–40.4 xPts
D24 AugH · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Getafe	Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 23	Moderate · 29
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Sep	2.7La Liga 2026-2027, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	403 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	757 km	1,431 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 5	2 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	20.2	19.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Getafe Confirmed XI

4-5-1

13David Soria(G)

22J. Mojica 24Z. Romero 2D. Dakonam 21Andrés García

10M. Satriano 16Francho Serrano 8N. Gudelj 11Ramon Terrats 20Ivan Azón Monzón

19E. Ünal

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Malaga Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 25Juan Berrocal 15Ángel Recio 31Rafita

14Rafa Rodríguez

11Joaquín Muñoz 22Dani Lorenzo 8Carlos Dotor 10David Larrubia

17Eneko Jauregi

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Getafe Absences are shown before kick-off

Malaga Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Getafe+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Malaga-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Getafe · Home 1.67points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-2-0
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 0.67

Malaga · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-2
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Getafe	Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game	2 of 6 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Getafe	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.17	1.83
Match goals	1.67	2.33	2.46
Over 1.5	50%	83%
Over 2.5	17%	33%	45%
Over 3.5	0%	33%
Both teams scored	33%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	6	6

	Getafe	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	0.70	0.50
Conceded per game	0.90	1.83
Match goals	1.60	2.33	2.46
Over 1.5	40%	83%
Over 2.5	20%	33%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	33%
Both teams scored	30%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	30%	17%
Failed to score	50%	50%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Getafe	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	3.83	4.83
Corners conceded	4.67	5.33
Match total	8.50	10.16	9.63
Over 8.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	3.50	2.67
Opponent cards	2.67	1.67
Match total	6.17	4.34	4.47
Over 3.5	100% 6/6	67% 4/6
Over 4.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6

	Getafe	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	4.22	4.90
Corners conceded	4.00	4.70
Match total	8.22	9.60	9.63
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	2.30
Opponent cards	2.90	1.50
Match total	5.70	3.80	4.47
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.57league 4.20

Red cards0.21league 0.25

Cards 5+30%league 52%

Fouls24.9league 24.8

Penalties0.36league 0.36

Home wins51%league 44%

Getafe2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 0.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

L3 Oct 25A · Osasuna1–24
D16 Feb 24A · Villarreal1–11

Malaga1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D24 Aug 26H · Deportivo La Coruna1–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.