Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Getafe had 7 days of rest, Real Sociedad 5 and had to travel 365 km.
Away travel365 kmRest days7 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 1
Getafe39%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad33%
Getafe40%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad33%
Getafe39%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad33%
Getafe32%
Draw29%
Real Sociedad39%
Getafe40%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad33%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainFrancisco Hernandez Maeso
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 27
Team strength
Getafe
Real Sociedad
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
27
AttackIn forecast
62
59
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisReal Sociedad
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeReal Sociedad
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.28
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.44
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
56%
Scored inContext
83%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
6%
9.28
ShotsContext
13.67
2.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
28%
On target shareContext
36%
5.06
Shots in the boxContext
8.28
50%
Box shareContext
64%
8%
ConversionContext
9%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.86
10.28
Shots allowedContext
11.83
4.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.44
2.44
BlocksContext
3.40
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.47
76%
Save rateContext
63%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
295
PassesContext
441
208
Accurate passesContext
365
70%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.44
FoulsContext
15.00
14.94
Fouls sufferedContext
11.83
2.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.19
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
40%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.20
ShotsContext
13.20
3.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
25%
On target shareContext
42%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
51%
Box shareContext
62%
5%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
3.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
10.10
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.70
2.67
BlocksContext
2.50
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.88
78%
Save rateContext
60%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
299
PassesContext
440
208
Accurate passesContext
362
70%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.67
Team ratingContext
6.81
12.70
FoulsContext
15.30
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Real Sociedad
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel365 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Real Sociedad |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 2 Jan | 5La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 365 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 25 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
16Diego Rico
12A. Nyom
21Juan Iglesias
17Kiko Femenía
23Adrian Liso
8M. Arambarri
5Luis Milla
14Javi Muñoz
45A. Mestanza
6Mario Martín
Real Sociedad
Confirmed XI
1Álex Remiro(G)
17Sergio Gómez
16D. Ćaleta-Car
31Jon Martín
2J. Aramburu
11Gonçalo Guedes
18Carlos Soler
8Beñat Turrientes
14T. Kubo
10Mikel Oyarzabal
23Brais Méndez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Real Sociedad
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Real Sociedad+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.38points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-3
- Scored
- 0.88
- Conceded
- 0.75
Real Sociedad · Away
0.78points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–4 A | L 1–3 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 H | D 2–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 2–3 H |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| Levante | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Alaves | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 21 of 54 · 1.17 per game | 18 of 54 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
2 Getafe wins4 draws4 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.30
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets30% · 50%
- 26 Jan 2025Real Sociedad0–3Getafe
- 1 Sep 2024Getafe0–0Real Sociedad
- 21 Apr 2024Getafe1–1Real Sociedad
- 24 Sep 2023Real Sociedad4–3Getafe
- 8 Apr 2023Real Sociedad2–0Getafe
- 11 Sep 2022Getafe2–1Real Sociedad
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.28 | 1.44 | |
| Match goals | 2.06 | 2.67 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 6% | 28% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 78% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 6% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 17% | |
| Games | 18 | 18 |
| Getafe | Real Sociedad | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 2.90 | 2.46 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 90% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 6.39 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 4.06 | |
| Match total | 8.55 | 10.45 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 8/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 6/18 | 61% 11/18 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 4/18 | 56% 10/18 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.06 | 2.67 | |
| Match total | 5.06 | 4.84 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 14/18 | 67% 12/18 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 11/18 | 33% 6/18 | |
| Getafe | Real Sociedad | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 9.30 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 3.30 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 5.40 | 4.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francisco Hernandez Maeso Spain · 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.04league 4.12
Red cards0.11league 0.27
Cards 5+44%league 46%
Fouls23.1league 24.5
Penalties0.33league 0.34
Home wins41%league 46%
GetafeNo previous matches with this referee.
Real Sociedad2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Mar 24A · Alaves1–02
- D12 Aug 23H · Girona1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe18 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Real Sociedad18 games · scored 22 · conceded 26
1
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
8
31-45
7
6
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
6
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 5 · conceded 12
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
0-15
1
2
16-30
4
4
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
