Getafe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Villarreal were the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 45). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Getafe. Getafe had 6.1 days of rest, Villarreal 4.8 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days6.1 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe33%
Draw31%
Villarreal36%
Getafe30%
Draw27%
Villarreal43%
Getafe33%
Draw31%
Villarreal36%
Getafe28%
Draw30%
Villarreal42%
Getafe34%
Draw29%
Villarreal37%
Over 2.5 36%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 12
Team strength
Getafe
Villarreal
45
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
48
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
27
AttackIn forecast
76
59
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVillarreal
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GetafeVillarreal
0.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.95
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
0.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.92
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.06
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
57%
Scored inContext
82%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
32%
9.57
ShotsContext
11.91
2.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.45
28%
On target shareContext
37%
5.52
Shots in the boxContext
8.14
54%
Box shareContext
68%
8%
ConversionContext
16%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.29
10.09
Shots allowedContext
12.32
3.91
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
2.45
BlocksContext
4.40
3.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
78%
Save rateContext
66%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
297
PassesContext
404
210
Accurate passesContext
337
71%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.92
13.78
FoulsContext
12.14
15.22
Fouls sufferedContext
11.41
2.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.09
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.70
ShotsContext
11.10
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
26%
On target shareContext
35%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
62%
Box shareContext
66%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.71
10.00
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.50
BlocksContext
3.80
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
75%
Save rateContext
53%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
310
PassesContext
362
222
Accurate passesContext
295
72%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.75
14.80
FoulsContext
12.60
15.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Getafe
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km593 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Villarreal
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel311 km690 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Getafe |
Villarreal |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 4.8La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 593 km | 690 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Getafe
Confirmed XI
13David Soria(G)
21Juan Iglesias
24Z. Romero
3A. Abqar
22Domingos Duarte
17Kiko Femenía
8M. Arambarri
2D. Dakonam
5Luis Milla
10M. Satriano
19L. Vázquez
Villarreal
Confirmed XI
1Luíz Júnior(G)
24A. Pedraza Sag
12Renato Veiga
6Pau Navarro
15S. Mouriño
32Hugo Lopez
10Dani Parejo
18P. Gueye
17T. Buchanan
21T. Oluwaseyi
19N. Pépé
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Getafe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Villarreal
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Getafe+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Villarreal-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Getafe · Home
1.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-5
- Scored
- 0.73
- Conceded
- 0.82
Villarreal · Away
1.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 17 this season
| Opponent | Getafe | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Alaves | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 HW 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Girona | D 1–1 AW 2–1 H | W 5–0 H |
| Valencia | L 0–1 HL 0–3 A | W 2–0 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–4 A | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 H | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Elche | W 1–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Mallorca | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Athletic Club | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Oviedo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 25 of 63 · 1.19 per game | 42 of 63 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
0 Getafe wins4 draws6 Villarreal wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.20
Over 2.530%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets20% · 50%
- 6 Dec 2025Villarreal2–0Getafe
- 30 Mar 2025Getafe1–2Villarreal
- 20 Oct 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
- 16 Feb 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
- 30 Sep 2023Getafe0–0Villarreal
- 27 Feb 2023Villarreal2–1Getafe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Getafe | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.78 | 1.95 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 1.96 | 3.05 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 55% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 4% | 41% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 50% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 32% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 18% | |
| Games | 23 | 22 |
| Getafe | Villarreal | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 1.80 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 36% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Getafe | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 8.90 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 10/23 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 7/23 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 5/23 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.91 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 5.08 | 4.45 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 74% 17/23 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 61% 14/23 | 45% 10/22 | |
| Getafe | Villarreal | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 7.80 | 9.10 | 9.60 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.40 | 4.42 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.67league 4.15
Red cards0.00league 0.27
Cards 5+17%league 45%
Fouls26.3league 24.6
Penalties0.17league 0.36
Home wins75%league 47%
Getafe1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L21 Dec 25A · Real Betis0–41
Villarreal1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W27 Sep 25H · Athletic Club1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Getafe23 games · scored 18 · conceded 27
1
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
6
5
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
8
76-90
Villarreal22 games · scored 43 · conceded 24
4
3
0-15
7
2
16-30
8
2
31-45
10
5
46-60
8
4
61-75
6
8
76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 6 · conceded 12
0-15
1
16-30
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
7
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
