GIL Vicente
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GIL Vicente were slight favourites.
GIL Vicente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. GIL Vicente had 8 days of rest, Arouca 9.2 and had to travel 74 km.
Away travel74 kmRest days8 · 9.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
GIL Vicente46%
Draw27%
Arouca27%
GIL Vicente49%
Draw26%
Arouca25%
GIL Vicente46%
Draw27%
Arouca27%
GIL Vicente39%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
GIL Vicente46%
Draw27%
Arouca27%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelos)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalMiguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 10
Team strength
GIL Vicente
Arouca
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
32
AttackIn forecast
28
50
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GIL VicenteArouca
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.28
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.94
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.10
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
75%
Scored inContext
72%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
13.53
ShotsContext
10.16
4.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.48
34%
On target shareContext
33%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
58%
Box shareContext
57%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.80
OffsidesContext
2.05
9.97
Shots allowedContext
12.75
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.58
2.67
BlocksContext
3.83
2.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
72%
Save rateContext
58%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
367
PassesContext
401
297
Accurate passesContext
333
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.63
13.16
FoulsContext
13.28
14.22
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
2.34
Yellow cardsContext
2.72
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
70%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
10.70
4.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
35%
On target shareContext
34%
7.70
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
63%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.29
10.70
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.30
BlocksContext
3.78
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
63%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
380
PassesContext
405
308
Accurate passesContext
341
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.20
FoulsContext
13.00
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GIL Vicente
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km45 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Arouca
Rest9.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel74 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GIL Vicente |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 3 May | 9.2Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 74 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 45 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5 | 4.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GIL Vicente
Confirmed XI
99Daniel Figueira(G)
3G. Konan
39Jonathan Buatu
4M. Elimbi
2Zé Carlos
95Santi García
6Zé Carlos
27Agustín Moreira
10Luís Esteves
77Murilo
89Gustavo Varela
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
25B. Kuipers
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
21T. Fukui
22E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
10Pablo Gozálbez
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GIL Vicente
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GIL Vicente+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GIL Vicente · Home
1.88points per game · 16 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-3-4
- Scored
- 1.69
- Conceded
- 0.88
Arouca · Away
0.88points per game · 16 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-2-10
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 2.06
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GIL Vicente | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | D 0–0 AD 2–2 H | W 3–0 AD 3–3 H |
| Casa Pia | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A | L 2–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Guimaraes | L 0–1 HD 0–0 A | W 3–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Tondela | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| AVS | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 1–0 AW 3–1 H |
| Santa Clara | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Alverca | D 2–2 HW 4–0 A | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Estrela | D 2–2 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Benfica | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–5 A |
| Estoril | L 1–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–2 HL 3–4 A |
| SC Braga | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Moreirense | W 2–1 AW 2–0 H | W 1–0 AL 0–2 H |
| Famalicao | W 5–0 HD 0–0 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| FC Porto | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 1–3 AL 0–4 H |
| Nacional | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Sporting CP | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–6 A |
| Points | 49 of 93 · 1.58 per game | 35 of 93 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 GIL Vicente wins5 draws2 Arouca wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.57
Over 2.543%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 28 Dec 2025Arouca2–2GIL Vicente
- 10 May 2025GIL Vicente1–1Arouca
- 27 Dec 2024Arouca1–1GIL Vicente
- 26 Apr 2024GIL Vicente2–2Arouca
- 16 Dec 2023Arouca3–0GIL Vicente
- 5 Feb 2023GIL Vicente1–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GIL Vicente | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.28 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.94 | |
| Match goals | 2.44 | 3.22 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 66% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 47% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 53% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 28% | |
| Games | 32 | 32 |
| GIL Vicente | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.60 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GIL Vicente | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.61 | 3.74 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.43 | 5.06 | |
| Match total | 10.04 | 8.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 18/28 | 48% 15/31 | |
| Over 9.5 | 61% 17/28 | 42% 13/31 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 15/28 | 35% 11/31 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 2.44 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.44 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 21/32 | 78% 25/32 | |
| Over 4.5 | 53% 17/32 | 63% 20/32 | |
| GIL Vicente | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.11 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.22 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 8.70 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 3.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.30 | 5.11 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Andre Monteiro Fonseca Portugal · 10 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.40league 4.83
Red cards0.00league 0.24
Cards 5+80%league 58%
Fouls26.0league 26.8
Penalties0.50league 0.43
Home wins30%league 41%
GIL Vicente1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D13 Apr 26A · Tondela2–22
Arouca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W7 Feb 26H · Guimaraes3–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GIL Vicente32 games · scored 46 · conceded 32
8
3
0-15
2
6
16-30
14
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
11
6
76-90
Arouca31 games · scored 41 · conceded 57
9
9
0-15
1
7
16-30
7
13
31-45
11
8
46-60
10
7
61-75
3
13
76-90
GIL Vicente10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
3
4
0-15
16-30
1
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
