Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Athletic Club were the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Girona had 6.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 6.7 and had to travel 491 km.
Away travel491 kmRest days6.9 · 6.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Girona39%
Draw28%
Athletic Club33%
Girona35%
Draw27%
Athletic Club38%
Girona39%
Draw28%
Athletic Club32%
Girona32%
Draw28%
Athletic Club40%
Girona39%
Draw27%
Athletic Club34%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.36
- Matches 14
Team strength
Girona
Athletic Club
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
61
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
49
AttackIn forecast
51
64
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAthletic Club
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaAthletic Club
1.04
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.59
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.54
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
-0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
74%
Scored inContext
67%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
10.26
ShotsContext
13.70
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
39%
On target shareContext
32%
6.70
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
65%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.55
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.74
Shots allowedContext
9.26
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.07
3.56
BlocksContext
2.33
3.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
70%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
453
PassesContext
401
388
Accurate passesContext
321
86%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.85
FoulsContext
12.85
14.04
Fouls sufferedContext
11.41
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.15
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.47
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.90
ShotsContext
13.50
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
41%
On target shareContext
33%
8.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
69%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.40
12.20
Shots allowedContext
9.10
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
3.40
BlocksContext
1.57
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
77%
Save rateContext
65%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
496
PassesContext
353
428
Accurate passesContext
267
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.69
12.00
FoulsContext
15.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
3.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km776 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Athletic Club
Rest6.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel491 km646 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Athletic Club |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar | 6.7La Liga 2025-2026, 7 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 491 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 776 km | 646 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
4Arnau Martínez
17D. Blind
16Alejandro Francés
2Hugo Rincón
20A. Witsel
8Fran Beltrán
3Joel Roca
18A. Ounahi
15V. Tsyhankov
19V. Vanat
Athletic Club
Confirmed XI
1Unai Simón(G)
17Yuri
14A. Laporte
3Dani Vivian
2Andoni Gorosabel
18Mikel Jauregizar
16Ruíz de Galarreta
7Álex Berenguer
8Oihan Sancet
23Robert Navarro
9I. Williams
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Athletic Club
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Athletic Club+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
1.23points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-5
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.62
Athletic Club · Away
0.92points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-7
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.62
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Girona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Levante | D 1–1 AL 0–4 H | W 4–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Alaves | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Barcelona | W 2–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| Oviedo | L 0–1 AD 3–3 H | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Getafe | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Espanyol | W 2–0 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Osasuna | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–1 A | L 2–3 AW 2–1 H |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Elche | L 0–3 A | W 2–1 HD 0–0 A |
| Real Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–3 H |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–5 A | L 0–1 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 30 of 78 · 1.15 per game | 34 of 78 · 1.31 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
3 Girona wins2 draws2 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game1.57 – 1.71
Over 2.571%
Both scored86%
Clean sheets0% · 14%
- 23 Sep 2025Athletic Club1–1Girona
- 8 Feb 2025Athletic Club3–0Girona
- 6 Oct 2024Girona2–1Athletic Club
- 19 Feb 2024Athletic Club3–2Girona
- 27 Nov 2023Girona1–1Athletic Club
- 26 Feb 2023Athletic Club2–3Girona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.04 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.59 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 52% | 44% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 19% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 52% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 26% | 33% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Girona | Athletic Club | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.55 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.44 | 5.15 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 3.85 | |
| Match total | 9.24 | 9.00 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 10/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 36% 9/25 | 33% 9/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.37 | 2.41 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.81 | 2.04 | |
| Match total | 4.18 | 4.45 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 41% 11/27 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 9/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Girona | Athletic Club | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.70 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.30 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.90 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 3.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.40 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.93league 4.21
Red cards0.43league 0.28
Cards 5+57%league 46%
Fouls28.4league 24.5
Penalties0.36league 0.37
Home wins21%league 46%
Girona2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.4.5 · 4.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W16 Jan 26A · Espanyol2–05
- D23 Nov 25A · Real Betis1–14
Athletic ClubNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona27 games · scored 28 · conceded 43
3
4
0-15
5
6
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
11
46-60
5
7
61-75
9
9
76-90
Athletic Club26 games · scored 30 · conceded 35
3
4
0-15
2
1
16-30
8
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
4
6
61-75
9
8
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 18 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
