Girona vs Atletico Madrid – 21 Dec 2025

La Liga Gameweek 17 Sun, Dec 21 · 13:00 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 18th · 15 pts · 16 played WDDLW

0–3Full time

Atletico Madrid 4th · 34 pts · 17 played WWLLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Atletico Madrid were slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid were the stronger side on L90 Strength (85 vs 40). Girona had 8.7 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 8 and had to travel 573 km.

Away travel573 kmRest days8.7 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1

Girona17%

Draw24%

Atletico Madrid60%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.84

Girona16%

Draw22%

Atletico Madrid61%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.95

Girona16%

Draw23%

Atletico Madrid60%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.84

Girona12%

Draw21%

Atletico Madrid67%

Expected goals 0.77 – 2.06

Girona17%

Draw22%

Atletico Madrid61%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.95

Over 2.5 51% Both score 49% Likeliest score 0–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJose Luis Guzman Mansilla

Cards per match 4.5
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 8

Team strength

Girona

Atletico Madrid

40 L90 StrengthIn forecast 85

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 80

49 AttackIn forecast 82

64 DefenceIn forecast 87

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Atletico Madrid

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Atletico Madrid

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.76

1.88 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.94

1.00 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

69% Scored inContext 94%

13% Clean sheetsContext 35%

9.31 ShotsContext 12.71

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.59

38% On target shareContext 44%

5.94 Shots in the boxContext 8.71

63% Box shareContext 68%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.47

16.38 Shots allowedContext 10.29

5.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.76

3.69 BlocksContext 2.53

3.69 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.94

69% Save rateContext 69%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

422 PassesContext 500

357 Accurate passesContext 427

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.38 FoulsContext 10.94

14.88 Fouls sufferedContext 10.47

2.06 Yellow cardsContext 2.06

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 16 and 17 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.21 xGVia Att/Def 1.68

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.32

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.40 ShotsContext 13.00

3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

39% On target shareContext 44%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.80

64% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 15%

2.25 OffsidesContext 2.50

16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.90

3.80 BlocksContext 2.60

4.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.90

77% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 54%

445 PassesContext 487

380 Accurate passesContext 412

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.92

11.10 FoulsContext 10.50

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest8.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,861 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Atletico Madrid

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel573 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.7La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Dec	8La Liga 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	573 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,861 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 4	0 / 1 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	14.2	14.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-5-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 16Alejandro Francés

3Joel Roca 23Iván Martín 20A. Witsel 4Arnau Martínez 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Atletico Madrid Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13J. Oblak(G)

3M. Ruggeri 17D. Hancko 18Marc Pubill 14Marcos Llorente

23N. González 6Koke 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone

9A. Sørloth 19J. Alvarez

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Atletico Madrid Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+0.2 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Atletico Madrid-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.13points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.75

Atletico Madrid · Away 1.13points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 2-3-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.13

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 15 this season

Opponent	Girona	Atletico Madrid
Elche	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	D 1–1 H	W 5–2 H
Real Betis	D 1–1 A	W 2–0 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Getafe	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 A
Oviedo	D 3–3 H	W 2–0 H
Barcelona	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 A
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 H
Espanyol	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 A
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	L 0–1 A
Levante	L 0–4 H	W 3–1 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 A
Sevilla	L 0–2 H	W 3–0 H
Villarreal	L 0–5 A	W 2–0 H
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	W 3–2 H
Points	12 of 45 · 0.80 per game	30 of 45 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Girona wins0 draws5 Atletico Madrid wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.67 Over 2.583% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

25 May 2025Girona0–4Atletico Madrid
25 Aug 2024Atletico Madrid3–0Girona
13 Apr 2024Atletico Madrid3–1Girona
3 Jan 2024Girona4–3Atletico Madrid
13 Mar 2023Girona0–1Atletico Madrid
8 Oct 2022Atletico Madrid2–1Girona

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.76
Conceded per game	1.88	0.94
Match goals	2.81	2.71	2.71
Over 1.5	88%	82%
Over 2.5	56%	41%	51%
Over 3.5	25%	24%
Both teams scored	63%	59%	49%
Clean sheets	13%	35%
Failed to score	31%	6%
Games	16	17

	Girona	Atletico Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.60
Conceded per game	1.40	0.70
Match goals	2.60	2.30	2.71
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	49%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.36	6.94
Corners conceded	5.21	3.47
Match total	9.57	10.41	9.62
Over 8.5	57% 8/14	76% 13/17
Over 9.5	43% 6/14	47% 8/17
Over 10.5	43% 6/14	47% 8/17
Cards
Cards	2.31	2.18
Opponent cards	1.25	2.24
Match total	3.56	4.42	4.37
Over 3.5	25% 4/16	71% 12/17
Over 4.5	25% 4/16	47% 8/17

	Girona	Atletico Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	7.70
Corners conceded	4.75	4.50
Match total	9.50	12.20	9.62
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 4/8	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	2.00
Opponent cards	1.40	2.00
Match total	3.80	4.00	4.37
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jose Luis Guzman Mansilla Spain · 8 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.38league 4.11

Red cards0.13league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 45%

Fouls24.8league 24.6

Penalties0.00league 0.33

Home wins38%league 48%

Girona

No previous matches with this referee.

Atletico Madrid

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.