Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Girona were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Girona usually keep the ball (51% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Girona had 6 days of rest, Levante 5.9 and had to travel 388 km.
Away travel388 kmRest days6 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Girona40%
Draw29%
Levante31%
Girona41%
Draw27%
Levante32%
Girona41%
Draw29%
Levante30%
Girona34%
Draw29%
Levante37%
Girona40%
Draw27%
Levante33%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Quintero Gonzalez
- Cards per match 3.0
- Penalties per match 0.50
- Matches 6
Team strength
Girona
Levante
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
49
AttackIn forecast
55
64
DefenceIn forecast
41
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaLevante
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
2.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.25
0.68
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
2.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
50%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
7.75
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
38%
On target shareContext
36%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
4.33
60%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
16%
1.67
OffsidesContext
3.00
16.50
Shots allowedContext
21.25
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.25
BlocksContext
6.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.25
55%
Save rateContext
75%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
30%
427
PassesContext
245
359
Accurate passesContext
174
84%
Pass accuracyContext
71%
6.51
Team ratingContext
6.66
7.50
FoulsContext
14.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.75
1.25
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.59
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.10
ShotsContext
13.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
40%
On target shareContext
33%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
59%
Box shareContext
61%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.75
13.90
Shots allowedContext
17.70
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.70
3.00
BlocksContext
4.10
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
64%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
454
PassesContext
341
390
Accurate passesContext
263
86%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.20
FoulsContext
13.30
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,905 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Levante
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel388 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 388 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,905 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 3.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
3Joel Roca
18A. Ounahi
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
10Y. Asprilla
19V. Vanat
Levante
Confirmed XI
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
2M. Moreno
5Unai Elguezabal
22J. Toljan
7Roger Brugué
20Oriol Rey
12Unai Vencedor
24Carlos Álvarez
9Iván Romero
21E. Eyong
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Levante
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona-0.9 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Levante+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.50
Levante · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Girona | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.75 | 2.25 | |
| Match goals | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.37 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.25 | 2.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 8.67 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 11.00 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.25 | 3.50 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Girona | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 4.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 9.10 | 10.78 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 5.40 | 4.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Quintero Gonzalez Spain · 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.86
Red cards0.00league 0.24
Cards 5+17%league 38%
Fouls25.0league 24.4
Penalties0.50league 0.33
Home wins33%league 48%
Girona2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Aug 25A · Villarreal0–52
- W13 May 25A · Valladolid1–00
LevanteNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona4 games · scored 2 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
6
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Levante4 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
3
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
7
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 17 · conceded 23
3
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
