Girona vs Osasuna – 10 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 19 Sat, Jan 10 · 17:30 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 17th · 18 pts · 18 played DLWLW

1–0Full time

Osasuna 13th · 19 pts · 18 played DWLWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 41). Girona had 6 days of rest, Osasuna 7.1 and had to travel 378 km.

Away travel378 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Girona36%

Draw29%

Osasuna35%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.21

Girona37%

Draw27%

Osasuna36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Girona36%

Draw29%

Osasuna35%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.21

Girona30%

Draw28%

Osasuna42%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.36

Girona37%

Draw27%

Osasuna36%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.33

Over 2.5 45% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez

Cards per match 5.3
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 124

Team strength

Girona

Osasuna

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 52

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 46

49 AttackIn forecast 50

64 DefenceIn forecast 50

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Osasuna

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Osasuna

0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.17

1.02 xGVia Att/Def 1.07

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

-0.08 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

67% Scored inContext 61%

11% Clean sheetsContext 28%

9.28 ShotsContext 10.33

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.76

38% On target shareContext 34%

5.94 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

64% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.46 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.78 Shots allowedContext 12.89

5.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.61 BlocksContext 3.44

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

68% Save rateContext 76%

48% PossessionIn forecast 45%

430 PassesContext 373

365 Accurate passesContext 296

85% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.39 FoulsContext 12.50

14.56 Fouls sufferedContext 11.11

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 18 and 18 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.09

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

-0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.01

80% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

9.80 ShotsContext 11.60

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

37% On target shareContext 36%

6.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

65% Box shareContext 65%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.20

14.90 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40

3.40 BlocksContext 3.13

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

70% Save rateContext 74%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

454 PassesContext 363

390 Accurate passesContext 288

86% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.86

11.00 FoulsContext 12.70

15.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km538 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Osasuna

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel378 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Osasuna
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6La Liga 2025-2026, 4 Jan	7.1La Liga 2025-2026, 3 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	378 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	538 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 2Hugo Rincón

4Arnau Martínez 23Iván Martín

21Bryan Gil 11T. Lemar 15V. Tsyhankov

19V. Vanat

Osasuna Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Sergio Herrera(G)

20Javi Galán 5Jorge Herrando 24Catena 19V. Rosier

6Lucas Torró 7Moncayola

21Víctor Muñoz 10Aimar Oroz 14Rubén García

17A. Budimir

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Absences are shown before kick-off

Osasuna Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Osasuna+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.00points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 2-3-4
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.89

Osasuna · Away 0.22points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-7
Scored: 0.33
Conceded: 1.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Osasuna
Mallorca	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 A
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 0–1 A
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 H
Elche	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 H
Real Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 0–1 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 A	L 0–2 A
Alaves	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Getafe	L 1–2 A	W 2–1 H
Oviedo	D 3–3 H	D 0–0 A
Barcelona	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 A
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 1–0 H
Espanyol	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 A
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Levante	L 0–4 H	W 2–0 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 H
Sevilla	L 0–2 H	L 0–1 A
Villarreal	L 0–5 A	L 1–2 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	W 2–0 H
Points	18 of 54 · 1.00 per game	19 of 54 · 1.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

3 Girona wins1 draws2 Osasuna wins

Goals per game2.17 – 1.17 Over 2.567% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 0%

13 Apr 2025Osasuna2–1Girona
29 Aug 2024Girona4–0Osasuna
9 Mar 2024Girona2–0Osasuna
4 Nov 2023Osasuna2–4Girona
4 Jun 2023Osasuna2–1Girona
23 Oct 2022Girona1–1Osasuna

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	0.94	1.00
Conceded per game	1.89	1.17
Match goals	2.83	2.17	2.46
Over 1.5	89%	67%
Over 2.5	61%	33%	45%
Over 3.5	22%	17%
Both teams scored	61%	39%	51%
Clean sheets	11%	28%
Failed to score	33%	39%
Games	18	18

	Girona	Osasuna	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.10
Conceded per game	1.70	1.30
Match goals	2.90	2.40	2.46
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	40%	45%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	51%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.38	3.13
Corners conceded	4.94	4.60
Match total	9.32	7.73	9.54
Over 8.5	50% 8/16	40% 6/15
Over 9.5	38% 6/16	27% 4/15
Over 10.5	38% 6/16	7% 1/15
Cards
Cards	2.22	2.39
Opponent cards	1.28	2.11
Match total	3.50	4.50	4.34
Over 3.5	22% 4/18	78% 14/18
Over 4.5	22% 4/18	56% 10/18

	Girona	Osasuna	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	3.33
Corners conceded	4.44	4.78
Match total	8.88	8.11	9.54
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.70
Opponent cards	1.50	2.20
Match total	3.70	4.90	4.34
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 124 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.08league 4.10

Red cards0.25league 0.27

Cards 5+59%league 45%

Fouls25.1league 24.5

Penalties0.30league 0.33

Home wins39%league 46%

Girona5 with this referee

Record3-0-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.4 Pens for · against0 · 1

L21 Apr 25H · Real Betis1–33
W23 Nov 24H · Espanyol4–10
L21 Sep 24A · Valencia0–22
W4 May 24H · Barcelona4–20
W3 Jan 24H · Atletico Madrid4–30

Osasuna7 with this referee

Record1-1-5 Cards · opp.2.6 · 3.7 Pens for · against5 · 0

L26 Oct 25H · Celta Vigo2–33
L16 Mar 25H · Getafe1–22
L17 Sep 23A · Getafe2–32
W18 Sep 21A · Alaves2–03
D21 Jan 21A · Valencia1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.