Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Girona were slight favourites.
Girona were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Girona. Girona had 6.9 days of rest, Oviedo 7.7 and had to travel 725 km.
Away travel725 kmRest days6.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Girona50%
Draw27%
Oviedo24%
Girona52%
Draw25%
Oviedo23%
Girona50%
Draw27%
Oviedo23%
Girona42%
Draw28%
Oviedo30%
Girona51%
Draw25%
Oviedo24%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Muñiz Ruiz
- Cards per match 5.4
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 28
Team strength
Girona
Oviedo
37
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
49
AttackIn forecast
23
64
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaOviedo
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.44
2.11
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
0.86
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
56%
Scored inContext
33%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
8.89
ShotsContext
8.33
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
39%
On target shareContext
33%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
66%
Box shareContext
53%
8%
ConversionContext
5%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.38
18.00
Shots allowedContext
18.11
5.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.11
BlocksContext
5.33
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.44
67%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
390
PassesContext
380
325
Accurate passesContext
315
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.78
9.78
FoulsContext
11.44
14.67
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.22
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.44
2.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.78
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
0.73
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
-0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.29
50%
Scored inContext
33%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
11%
8.20
ShotsContext
8.33
3.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
39%
On target shareContext
33%
5.40
Shots in the boxContext
4.56
64%
Box shareContext
53%
7%
ConversionContext
5%
2.83
OffsidesContext
2.38
18.10
Shots allowedContext
18.11
6.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.40
BlocksContext
5.33
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.44
68%
Save rateContext
78%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
392
PassesContext
380
329
Accurate passesContext
315
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.10
FoulsContext
11.44
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.44
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km172 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Oviedo
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel725 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9La Liga 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 7.7La Liga 2025-2026, 17 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 725 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 172 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 9.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
24Álex Moreno
17D. Blind
12Vitor Reis
4Arnau Martínez
20A. Witsel
23Iván Martín
3Joel Roca
15V. Tsyhankov
21Bryan Gil
19V. Vanat
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
14O. Ejaria
20L. Dendoncker
11S. Colombatto
7I. Chaira
23S. Rondón
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Oviedo+0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 0.60
- Conceded
- 2.00
Oviedo · Away
0.75points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Girona | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | L 1–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Valencia | W 2–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Espanyol | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Levante | L 0–4 H | L 0–2 H |
| Villarreal | L 0–5 A | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.11 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.22 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 67% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Girona | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.11 | 1.78 | |
| Match goals | 2.78 | 2.22 | 2.53 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 22% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 11% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 67% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.38 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.25 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.63 | 9.55 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.22 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.22 | 3.89 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 22% 2/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Girona | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 6.33 | |
| Match total | 10.44 | 9.55 | 9.82 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.22 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.89 | 4.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz Spain · 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.07league 4.04
Red cards0.32league 0.29
Cards 5+61%league 44%
Fouls24.8league 24.7
Penalties0.46league 0.30
Home wins54%league 46%
Girona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W24 May 24H · Granada CF7–03
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L15 Aug 25A · Villarreal0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Girona9 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 4 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
Girona10 games · scored 6 · conceded 23
2
2
0-15
2
6
16-30
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 4 · conceded 16
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
