Girona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rayo Vallecano were the stronger side on L90 Strength (50 vs 44). Girona had ? days of rest, Rayo Vallecano ? and had to travel 573 km.
Away travel573 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0
Girona40%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Girona40%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Girona40%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano32%
Girona33%
Draw28%
Rayo Vallecano39%
Girona40%
Draw27%
Rayo Vallecano33%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Girona)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJavier Alberola Rojas
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 21
Team strength
Girona
Rayo Vallecano
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
58
49
AttackIn forecast
61
64
DefenceIn forecast
60
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRayo Vallecano
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GironaRayo Vallecano
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.06
1.52
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.70
ShotsContext
14.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
59%
Box shareContext
51%
8%
ConversionContext
7%
2.86
OffsidesContext
2.40
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
3.00
BlocksContext
3.40
4.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.20
69%
Save rateContext
58%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
465
PassesContext
428
405
Accurate passesContext
347
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.90
FoulsContext
11.40
12.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Girona
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rayo Vallecano
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel573 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Girona |
Rayo Vallecano |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 573 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 10 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Girona
Confirmed XI
13P. Gazzaniga(G)
17D. Blind
18L. Krejčí
5David López
4Arnau Martínez
33Joel Roca
22J. Solís
21Y. Herrera
10Y. Asprilla
19B. Miovski
15V. Tsyhankov
Rayo Vallecano
Confirmed XI
13A. Batalla(G)
3Pep Chavarría
5Luiz Felipe
24F. Lejeune
2A. Rațiu
17Unai López
6P. Ciss
18Álvaro García
4Pedro Díaz
7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Girona
Absences are shown before kick-off
Rayo Vallecano
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Girona+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Girona · Home
No home games yet this season.
Rayo Vallecano · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Girona wins3 draws1 Rayo Vallecano wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.17
Over 2.583%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 17%
- 26 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano2–1Girona
- 25 Sep 2024Girona0–0Rayo Vallecano
- 26 Feb 2024Girona3–0Rayo Vallecano
- 11 Nov 2023Rayo Vallecano1–2Girona
- 18 Mar 2023Rayo Vallecano2–2Girona
- 29 Dec 2022Girona2–2Rayo Vallecano
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Girona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Girona | Rayo Vallecano | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 53% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Girona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Girona | Rayo Vallecano | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.70 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 11.20 | |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.90 | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Javier Alberola Rojas Spain · 21 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.14
Red cards0.14
Cards 5+19%
Fouls24.6
Penalties0.19
Home wins48%
Girona1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W20 Apr 24H · Cadiz4–11
Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D2 Mar 24H · Cadiz1–11
- L19 Dec 23H · Valencia0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GironaRayo VallecanoGirona10 games · scored 8 · conceded 19
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
4
9
76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
