Girona
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Girona39.7%fair odds 2.52
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.59
Rayo Vallecano32.5%fair odds 3.08
Expected goals1.36 – 1.21total 2.57
Likeliest score1–113.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Girona ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Girona goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%7.54
- 1–09.8%10.24
- 0–18.6%11.64
- 2–18.6%11.66
- 0–08.3%12.00
- 1–27.6%13.15
- 2–07.1%14.08
- 0–25.6%17.90
- 2–25.2%19.33
- 3–13.9%25.71
Winning margin
6.8%
Girona by 3+
fair 14.73
11.9%
Girona by 2
fair 8.41
21.0%
Girona by 1
fair 4.75
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.59
18.6%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 5.38
9.3%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 10.70
4.5%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 22.05
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
12%5+
Girona goals
26%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 39.7% | 40.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 27.1% | +0.7 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 32.5% | 32.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 47.4% | 50.1% | -2.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.8% | 55.0% | -2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Girona | 1.36 | 1.42 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 1.21 | 1.26 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Girona win39.7%2.52
- Draw27.8%3.59
- Rayo Vallecano win32.5%3.08
- Double chance Girona or draw67.5%1.48
- Double chance Girona or Rayo Vallecano72.2%1.39
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw60.3%1.66
- Draw no bet Girona55.0%1.82
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano45.0%2.22
Goals
- Over 0.591.7%1.09
- Over 1.573.3%1.36
- Over 2.547.4%2.11
- Over 3.525.7%3.89
- Over 4.511.8%8.47
- Under 1.526.7%3.75
- Under 2.552.6%1.90
- Under 3.574.3%1.35
Both teams to score
- Yes52.8%1.89
- No47.2%2.12
- Yes and over 2.539.5%2.53
- Girona win and yes18.1%5.51
- Draw and yes19.5%5.13
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes15.2%6.60
Team goals
- Girona over 0.574.4%1.34
- Girona over 1.539.5%2.53
- Girona over 2.515.7%6.36
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.570.1%1.43
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.534.0%2.94
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.512.2%8.19
- Girona clean sheet29.9%3.34
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet25.6%3.90
- Girona win to nil21.6%4.64
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil17.3%5.78
Handicap
- Girona −1.518.7%5.36
- Girona −2.56.8%14.73
- Rayo Vallecano +1.581.3%1.23
- Rayo Vallecano +2.593.2%1.07
- Rayo Vallecano −1.513.9%7.20
- Girona +1.586.1%1.16
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.