Girona vs Real Betis – 21 Apr 2026

La Liga Gameweek 33 Tue, Apr 21 · 20:30 Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona

Girona 12th · 38 pts · 31 played DWLWD

2–3Full time

Real Betis 5th · 46 pts · 31 played LDLDD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Real Betis were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 51). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Girona. Girona had 11 days of rest, Real Betis 5 and had to travel 909 km.

Away travel909 kmRest days11 · 5Matches / 14d1 · 3

Girona37%

Draw29%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.17

Girona36%

Draw27%

Real Betis36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Girona37%

Draw29%

Real Betis35%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.21

Girona31%

Draw29%

Real Betis41%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.32

Girona38%

Draw28%

Real Betis34%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.24

Over 2.5 43% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Girona)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia

Cards per match 5.1
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 16

Team strength

Girona

Real Betis

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 63

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 72

49 AttackIn forecast 79

64 DefenceIn forecast 59

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Girona

Attack—

Defense risk—

Real Betis

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Girona

Real Betis

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.45

1.45 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.23

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.05

74% Scored inContext 87%

19% Clean sheetsContext 29%

10.19 ShotsContext 14.13

3.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71

37% On target shareContext 33%

6.61 Shots in the boxContext 8.42

65% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.52 OffsidesContext 2.17

15.10 Shots allowedContext 11.84

5.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.16

3.71 BlocksContext 3.03

3.79 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

73% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 51%

456 PassesContext 462

391 Accurate passesContext 392

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.89

10.61 FoulsContext 10.39

13.87 Fouls sufferedContext 13.32

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.13 Red cardsContext 0.03

This league season, per match · 31 and 31 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.33 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

80% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.10 ShotsContext 12.90

4.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

36% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.30

66% Box shareContext 55%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.43 OffsidesContext 2.11

15.10 Shots allowedContext 8.40

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60

4.10 BlocksContext 2.20

4.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

82% Save rateContext 71%

52% PossessionIn forecast 57%

493 PassesContext 516

429 Accurate passesContext 443

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.81

9.90 FoulsContext 10.50

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Girona

Rest11 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,146 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Real Betis

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel909 km2,433 km in 14d

Schedule load32%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Girona	Real Betis
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 32
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	11La Liga 2025-2026, 10 Apr	5UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 16 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	909 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,146 km	2,433 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.9	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Girona Confirmed XI

4-4-1-1

13P. Gazzaniga(G)

24Álex Moreno 17D. Blind 12Vitor Reis 4Arnau Martínez

18A. Ounahi 20A. Witsel 8Fran Beltrán 15V. Tsyhankov

23Iván Martín

14C. Echeverri

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Real Betis Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

16Valentín Gómez 4Natan 5Marc Bartra 24Aitor Ruibal

21Marc Roca 14S. Amrabat 20G. Lo Celso

10A. Ezzalzouli 19C. Hernández 8Pablo Fornals

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Girona Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Real Betis Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Girona+0.6 pp
Draw+0.2 pp
Real Betis-0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Girona · Home 1.47points per game · 15 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-5
Scored: 1.13
Conceded: 1.40

Real Betis · Away 1.25points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-8-4
Scored: 1.19
Conceded: 1.38

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Girona	Real Betis
Real Madrid	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H	L 1–5 A
Villarreal	W 1–0 HL 0–5 A	W 2–0 HD 2–2 A
Osasuna	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Athletic Club	W 3–0 HD 1–1 A	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Levante	D 1–1 AL 0–4 H	D 2–2 A
Celta Vigo	L 1–2 HD 1–1 A	D 1–1 HD 1–1 A
Alaves	D 2–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Barcelona	W 2–1 HL 1–2 A	L 3–5 H
Sevilla	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HW 2–0 A
Oviedo	L 0–1 AD 3–3 H	D 1–1 A
Getafe	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 AW 4–0 H
Espanyol	W 2–0 AD 0–0 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
Mallorca	W 2–1 A	W 2–1 AW 3–0 H
Atletico Madrid	L 0–3 H	W 1–0 AL 0–2 H
Real Sociedad	W 2–1 A	W 3–1 H
Elche	L 0–3 A	D 1–1 A
Valencia	W 2–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Rayo Vallecano	L 1–3 H	D 1–1 HD 0–0 A
Points	37 of 90 · 1.23 per game	45 of 90 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 Girona wins3 draws3 Real Betis wins

Goals per game1.29 – 1.71 Over 2.557% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

23 Nov 2025Real Betis1–1Girona
21 Apr 2025Girona1–3Real Betis
15 Aug 2024Real Betis1–1Girona
31 Mar 2024Girona3–2Real Betis
21 Dec 2023Real Betis1–1Girona
28 May 2023Girona1–2Real Betis

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Girona	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.45
Conceded per game	1.45	1.23
Match goals	2.52	2.68	2.42
Over 1.5	81%	87%
Over 2.5	48%	45%	43%
Over 3.5	16%	23%
Both teams scored	58%	65%	50%
Clean sheets	19%	29%
Failed to score	26%	13%
Games	31	31

	Girona	Real Betis	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.20
Conceded per game	1.00	1.40
Match goals	2.20	2.60	2.42
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	40%	40%	43%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Girona	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	4.24	4.30
Corners conceded	5.14	5.13
Match total	9.38	9.43	9.59
Over 8.5	55% 16/29	57% 17/30
Over 9.5	45% 13/29	47% 14/30
Over 10.5	41% 12/29	27% 8/30
Cards
Cards	2.19	1.94
Opponent cards	1.84	2.65
Match total	4.03	4.59	4.55
Over 3.5	39% 12/31	65% 20/31
Over 4.5	29% 9/31	52% 16/31

	Girona	Real Betis	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.30
Corners conceded	6.00	3.50
Match total	10.40	7.80	9.59
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	2.10	2.80
Match total	3.60	5.30	4.55
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 16 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.69league 4.28

Red cards0.38league 0.28

Cards 5+50%league 48%

Fouls28.4league 24.5

Penalties0.31league 0.36

Home wins25%league 49%

Girona3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.7 Pens for · against2 · 0

W14 Mar 26H · Athletic Club3–00
W16 Jan 26A · Espanyol2–05
D23 Nov 25A · Real Betis1–14

Real Betis2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.4.0 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

D23 Nov 25H · Girona1–14
W5 Oct 25A · Espanyol2–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.