GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
11th · 36 pts · 30 played
LWLWD
First leg2–2
0–0Full time
AZ Alkmaar
6th · 48 pts · 30 played
LWLWW
Our take
AZ Alkmaar were slight favourites.
AZ Alkmaar were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for AZ Alkmaar. GO Ahead Eagles had 11.9 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 11.1 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days11.9 · 11.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
GO Ahead Eagles30%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar45%
GO Ahead Eagles32%
Draw27%
AZ Alkmaar41%
GO Ahead Eagles30%
Draw25%
AZ Alkmaar45%
GO Ahead Eagles23%
Draw24%
AZ Alkmaar53%
GO Ahead Eagles30%
Draw26%
AZ Alkmaar44%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJeroen Manschot
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 52
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesAZ Alkmaar
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
29
AttackIn forecast
52
17
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAZ Alkmaar
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesAZ Alkmaar
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.73
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
80%
Scored inContext
90%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.10
ShotsContext
15.20
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.87
45%
On target shareContext
39%
8.35
Shots in the boxContext
10.03
70%
Box shareContext
65%
15%
ConversionContext
11%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.80
17.93
Shots allowedContext
12.03
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
6.04
BlocksContext
3.48
4.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.97
77%
Save rateContext
68%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
410
PassesContext
447
332
Accurate passesContext
368
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.91
8.80
FoulsContext
9.83
10.23
Fouls sufferedContext
11.23
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.93
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.80
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.63
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.40
ShotsContext
14.40
5.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
46%
On target shareContext
40%
9.22
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
74%
Box shareContext
64%
17%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.78
18.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
5.70
BlocksContext
3.20
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
81%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
370
PassesContext
433
289
Accurate passesContext
357
78%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.01
Team ratingContext
6.98
7.50
FoulsContext
9.70
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest11.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km221 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AZ Alkmaar
Rest11.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel105 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
AZ Alkmaar |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 11.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Apr | 11.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 221 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9.9 | 9.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
AZ Alkmaar
Confirmed XI
1R. Owusu-Oduro(G)
23B. van Duijl
5Alexandre Penetra
18Rion Ichihara
15Mateo Chávez
10S. Mijnans
33M. Šín
22Elijah Dijkstra
17I. Jensen
35M. Meerdink
7Weslley Patati
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AZ Alkmaar
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AZ Alkmaar+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.60points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-6-3
- Scored
- 2.20
- Conceded
- 1.33
AZ Alkmaar · Away
1.27points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-8
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.60
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| Groningen | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–3 AW 4–1 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 5–0 HW 2–0 A | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H |
| Utrecht | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | L 0–2 AW 4–1 H |
| NAC Breda | W 6–0 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Twente | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A | W 4–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | D 3–3 H |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | W 3–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 HL 3–4 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 AL 1–5 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 HL 1–2 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Points | 35 of 87 · 1.21 per game | 47 of 87 · 1.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 GO Ahead Eagles wins2 draws2 AZ Alkmaar wins
Goals per game1.25 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 7 Dec 2025AZ Alkmaar2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 4 May 2025GO Ahead Eagles0–3AZ Alkmaar
- 27 Oct 2024AZ Alkmaar2–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 13 Aug 2023AZ Alkmaar5–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.73 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.17 | 3.23 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 67% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 63% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | AZ Alkmaar | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.99 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.04 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 25/30 | 77% 23/30 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 20/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 10.5 | 53% 16/30 | 33% 10/30 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.53 | 1.97 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.53 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.06 | 3.54 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% 11/30 | 43% 13/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 6/30 | 23% 7/30 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | AZ Alkmaar | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 11.90 | 10.50 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.34 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeroen Manschot Netherlands · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.27league 3.17
Red cards0.15league 0.17
Cards 5+29%league 26%
Fouls19.6league 21.2
Penalties0.27league 0.23
Home wins46%league 45%
GO Ahead Eagles7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Mar 26A · Utrecht0–21
- L22 Nov 25A · Heracles2–43
- W21 Sep 25A · PEC Zwolle2–02
- D27 Apr 25A · Almere City FC0–01
- L1 Dec 24A · Twente2–32
AZ Alkmaar7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L30 Nov 25A · Twente0–14
- W18 Oct 25A · Ajax2–02
- W31 Aug 25A · NAC Breda1–05
- L5 Apr 25H · Feyenoord0–13
- D25 Aug 24A · Groningen0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles29 games · scored 48 · conceded 45
10
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
9
11
31-45
7
8
46-60
9
6
61-75
10
9
76-90
AZ Alkmaar30 games · scored 52 · conceded 45
11
9
0-15
6
4
16-30
11
10
31-45
5
5
46-60
7
5
61-75
12
12
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 19 · conceded 11
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
AZ Alkmaar10 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
