GO Ahead Eagles vs Groningen – 21 Dec 2025

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Dec 21 · 13:30 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

GO Ahead Eagles 13th · 18 pts · 16 played WLDDL

1–1Full time

Groningen 5th · 26 pts · 16 played LDLWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on GO Ahead Eagles. GO Ahead Eagles had 7 days of rest, Groningen 7.8 and had to travel 111 km.

Away travel111 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 1

GO Ahead Eagles42%

Draw26%

Groningen32%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.29

GO Ahead Eagles43%

Draw27%

Groningen30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.20

GO Ahead Eagles43%

Draw26%

Groningen31%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.27

GO Ahead Eagles34%

Draw27%

Groningen39%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.44

GO Ahead Eagles41%

Draw27%

Groningen31%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.22

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deventer)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.29
Matches 24

Team strength

GO Ahead Eagles

Groningen

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

29 AttackIn forecast 41

17 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GO Ahead Eagles

Groningen

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.50

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.31

1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.69

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.19

81% Scored inContext 75%

19% Clean sheetsContext 31%

10.31 ShotsContext 15.63

4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.87

46% On target shareContext 41%

7.92 Shots in the boxContext 8.94

69% Box shareContext 58%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.77 OffsidesContext 1.92

18.50 Shots allowedContext 10.75

5.94 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.07

6.71 BlocksContext 2.46

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.85

76% Save rateContext 64%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

430 PassesContext 414

354 Accurate passesContext 333

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.81 FoulsContext 10.88

10.69 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75

1.38 Yellow cardsContext 1.69

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.92

1.94 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.72

60% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

7.70 ShotsContext 16.90

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.44

46% On target shareContext 40%

5.44 Shots in the boxContext 9.10

66% Box shareContext 54%

14% ConversionContext 7%

1.70 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.00 Shots allowedContext 9.50

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

5.44 BlocksContext 1.75

4.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.75

75% Save rateContext 63%

49% PossessionIn forecast 53%

432 PassesContext 428

352 Accurate passesContext 350

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.71 Team ratingContext 6.85

8.30 FoulsContext 10.50

8.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,762 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel111 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 14 Dec	7.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,762 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	21	20.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 21M. Meulensteen 2M. Deijl

8H. Linthorst 6C. Twigt

17M. Suray 24K. Goudmijn 23T. Baeten

9M. Smit

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

8T. de Jonge 6S. Resink

10Y. Taha 26T. van Bergen 14J. Schreuders

9B. Willumsson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GO Ahead Eagles Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GO Ahead Eagles-1.6 pp
Draw+0.3 pp
Groningen+1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 1.71points per game · 7 home games

W-D-L: 3-3-1
Scored: 1.71
Conceded: 1.29

Groningen · Away 1.50points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-0-4
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen
Twente	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
AZ Alkmaar	D 2–2 A	L 1–4 A
Utrecht	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Heracles	L 2–4 A	W 4–0 H
Feyenoord	W 2–1 H	L 0–1 H
NAC Breda	L 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–0 H	W 2–0 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 A	L 2–4 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 A
Telstar	L 2–4 A	W 2–0 H
PEC Zwolle	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
FC Volendam	W 3–0 H	W 3–0 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–3 H	L 0–2 H
Ajax	D 2–2 H	L 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	D 2–2 A	W 2–1 A
Points	18 of 48 · 1.13 per game	26 of 48 · 1.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

2 GO Ahead Eagles wins0 draws0 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

18 Jan 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–1Groningen
29 Sep 2024Groningen0–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.50
Conceded per game	1.75	1.31
Match goals	3.31	2.81	2.79
Over 1.5	94%	88%
Over 2.5	69%	50%	53%
Over 3.5	44%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	44%	57%
Clean sheets	19%	31%
Failed to score	19%	25%
Games	16	16

	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.40	2.79
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.25	5.73
Corners conceded	5.69	4.53
Match total	10.94	10.26	10.18
Over 8.5	81% 13/16	67% 10/15
Over 9.5	69% 11/16	47% 7/15
Over 10.5	56% 9/16	40% 6/15
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.81
Opponent cards	1.94	1.88
Match total	3.44	3.69	3.63
Over 3.5	44% 7/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	19% 3/16	25% 4/16

	GO Ahead Eagles	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	3.20	6.78
Corners conceded	5.70	4.44
Match total	8.90	11.22	10.18
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	2.30
Match total	3.80	3.70	3.63
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 24 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.42league 3.40

Red cards0.25league 0.22

Cards 5+38%league 33%

Fouls22.3league 21.8

Penalties0.29league 0.30

Home wins50%league 47%

GO Ahead Eagles4 with this referee

Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 2

L28 Sep 25A · Telstar2–40
L18 Aug 24A · Willem II0–22
D28 Jan 24H · NEC Nijmegen2–22
D22 Oct 23H · Sparta Rotterdam0–00

Groningen1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.0.0 · 5.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

W23 Apr 25H · Heracles4–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.