GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
GO Ahead Eagles
13th · 32 pts · 28 played
WWLWL
First leg2–0
5–0Full time
PEC Zwolle
12th · 33 pts · 28 played
DDDDW
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards PEC Zwolle. GO Ahead Eagles had 13.9 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 14.6 and had to travel 29 km.
Away travel29 kmRest days13.9 · 14.6Matches / 14d1 · 0
GO Ahead Eagles43%
Draw25%
PEC Zwolle32%
GO Ahead Eagles44%
Draw27%
PEC Zwolle29%
GO Ahead Eagles43%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle31%
GO Ahead Eagles35%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle39%
GO Ahead Eagles43%
Draw26%
PEC Zwolle32%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 112
Team strength
GO Ahead EaglesPEC Zwolle
23
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
29
AttackIn forecast
17
17
DefenceIn forecast
14
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesPEC Zwolle
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
1.61
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.89
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
82%
Scored inContext
86%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
11.00
ShotsContext
9.32
5.04
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
44%
On target shareContext
38%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
5.93
70%
Box shareContext
64%
15%
ConversionContext
15%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.79
Shots allowedContext
16.54
5.68
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.96
5.96
BlocksContext
4.11
4.32
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
76%
Save rateContext
70%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
412
PassesContext
370
336
Accurate passesContext
290
82%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.80
8.93
FoulsContext
11.25
10.25
Fouls sufferedContext
11.71
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.27
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
70%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
11.50
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
41%
On target shareContext
43%
8.44
Shots in the boxContext
7.70
72%
Box shareContext
67%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.86
16.90
Shots allowedContext
14.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
5.70
BlocksContext
4.00
4.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
79%
Save rateContext
76%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
371
PassesContext
401
294
Accurate passesContext
318
79%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.92
8.70
FoulsContext
12.60
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km147 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PEC Zwolle
Rest14.6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel29 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 14.6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 29 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 147 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.3 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
7J. Breum
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
16T. de Graaff(G)
2S. Floranus
4A. MacNulty
5T. Velthuis
6T. Gooijer
8Z. Buurmeester
22K. de Rooij
18O. Velanas
9Y. Namli
25T. Oosting
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- PEC Zwolle+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.50points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-6-3
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.43
PEC Zwolle · Away
0.64points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-7
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 2.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | L 0–2 AD 2–2 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 6–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Twente | L 1–4 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Heracles | W 4–0 HL 2–4 A | L 2–8 A |
| Feyenoord | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–6 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–3 HD 2–2 A | L 2–4 AW 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 1–1 HL 2–4 A | W 4–1 HW 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | D 1–1 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 HL 1–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 HD 2–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Groningen | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 HD 2–2 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–2 A | L 0–4 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Points | 29 of 81 · 1.07 per game | 33 of 81 · 1.22 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 GO Ahead Eagles wins4 draws0 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00
Over 2.520%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 21 Sep 2025PEC Zwolle0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 11 May 2025PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles
- 3 Nov 2024GO Ahead Eagles2–2PEC Zwolle
- 11 Feb 2024GO Ahead Eagles1–1PEC Zwolle
- 17 Sep 2023PEC Zwolle1–1GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.61 | 1.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 3.25 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 61% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 46% | 39% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 71% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 14% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.21 | 3.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.64 | 5.77 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 9.39 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 82% 23/28 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 18/28 | 50% 13/26 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 14/28 | 35% 9/26 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.64 | 1.89 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.61 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.43 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 21% 6/28 | 25% 7/28 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 11.00 | 10.28 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 2.90 | 2.70 | 3.37 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 112 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.28league 3.20
Red cards0.13league 0.17
Cards 5+26%league 27%
Fouls21.5league 21.3
Penalties0.30league 0.23
Home wins42%league 45%
GO Ahead Eagles5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.4 · 0.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D17 Aug 25H · Ajax2–21
- L8 Feb 25A · Heracles2–40
- W23 Nov 24H · Almere City FC3–00
- W21 Jan 24A · Sparta Rotterdam2–03
- L13 Aug 23A · AZ Alkmaar1–53
PEC Zwolle4 with this referee
Record2-2-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D18 Oct 25A · NAC Breda2–23
- W29 Mar 25H · Waalwijk2–01
- D13 Jan 24H · Heerenveen2–21
- W5 Nov 23H · Fortuna Sittard2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles27 games · scored 43 · conceded 45
7
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
9
11
31-45
6
8
46-60
8
6
61-75
10
9
76-90
PEC Zwolle27 games · scored 38 · conceded 51
9
3
0-15
5
8
16-30
7
16
31-45
5
7
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
12
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
