GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. GO Ahead Eagles had 6.2 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 6.1 and had to travel 121 km.
Away travel121 kmRest days6.2 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
GO Ahead Eagles41%
Draw27%
Sparta Rotterdam32%
GO Ahead Eagles48%
Draw26%
Sparta Rotterdam26%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 2.7
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 15
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
18
29
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesSparta Rotterdam
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
0.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.24
2.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
+1.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
7.50
ShotsContext
11.50
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
40%
On target shareContext
39%
—
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
—
Box shareContext
61%
27%
ConversionContext
13%
1.50
OffsidesContext
—
29.50
Shots allowedContext
21.00
9.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.50
10.00
BlocksContext
6.00
7.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
74%
Save rateContext
53%
41%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
353
PassesContext
373
286
Accurate passesContext
290
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.59
9.00
FoulsContext
5.50
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.50
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.75
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
11.90
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
29%
On target shareContext
39%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
8.56
60%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.83
21.70
Shots allowedContext
18.50
7.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
6.50
BlocksContext
5.60
5.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
73%
Save rateContext
67%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
463
PassesContext
368
387
Accurate passesContext
294
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
7.08
8.30
FoulsContext
8.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
0.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel121 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Sparta Rotterdam |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 121 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 174 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
3G. Nauber
2M. Deijl
8H. Linthorst
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
18R. Margaret
16V. Edvardsen
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
8P. Clement
6J. Kitolano
10J. Toornstra
11S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
7M. van Bergen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Sparta Rotterdam · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 6.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws0 Sparta Rotterdam wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets75% · 25%
- 14 Feb 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 15 Sep 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 21 Jan 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2GO Ahead Eagles
- 22 Oct 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–0Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 5.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 5.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 14.00 | 12.00 | 10.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Sparta Rotterdam | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.50 | 4.88 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 8.88 | 10.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.50 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.47league 3.39
Red cards0.20league 0.11
Cards 5+13%league 33%
Fouls21.3league 21.9
Penalties0.13league 0.17
Home wins53%league 56%
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 May 25H · Heerenveen1–01
- W16 Mar 25H · Willem II1–01
- D26 Nov 23A · NEC Nijmegen1–13
Sparta Rotterdam2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.0.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W6 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
- D28 Sep 24H · Fortuna Sittard1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles2 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam2 games · scored 3 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 17 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
