GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles48.5%fair odds 2.06
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
Sparta Rotterdam25.8%fair odds 3.88
Expected goals1.64 – 1.14total 2.77
Likeliest score1–112.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Sparta Rotterdam → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Sparta Rotterdam goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.2%8.18
- 1–09.6%10.40
- 2–19.5%10.51
- 2–08.4%11.93
- 0–06.9%14.59
- 1–26.6%15.17
- 0–16.5%15.46
- 2–25.4%18.52
- 3–15.2%19.24
- 3–04.6%21.84
Winning margin
11.0%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 9.13
14.9%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 6.69
22.6%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.43
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
15.5%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 6.47
7.2%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 13.94
3.2%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 31.67
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
32%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 48.5% | 47.8% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 26.1% | -0.4 pp |
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 25.8% | 26.1% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 51.1% | +1.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.3% | 54.4% | +1.0 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.64 | 1.60 | +0.04 |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.14 | 1.12 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win48.5%2.06
- Draw25.7%3.89
- Sparta Rotterdam win25.8%3.88
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw74.2%1.35
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Sparta Rotterdam74.3%1.35
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw51.5%1.94
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles65.3%1.53
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam34.7%2.88
Goals
- Over 0.593.1%1.07
- Over 1.577.1%1.30
- Over 2.552.4%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.74
- Under 1.522.9%4.36
- Under 2.547.6%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes55.3%1.81
- No44.7%2.24
- Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes23.2%4.31
- Draw and yes18.9%5.30
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes13.2%7.57
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.580.6%1.24
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.548.8%2.05
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.522.7%4.41
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.567.9%1.47
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.531.4%3.19
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.510.7%9.36
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet32.1%3.11
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet19.4%5.15
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil25.3%3.96
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil12.6%7.96
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.525.9%3.86
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.511.0%9.13
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.574.1%1.35
- Sparta Rotterdam +2.589.0%1.12
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.510.3%9.68
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.589.7%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored18
Favourite won61.1%
Avg chance given to result46.5%
1X2 Brier0.492
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right61.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 7 | 44.1% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 4 | 55.9% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 12 of 18 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4995 | 0.4951 |
| Avg chance given to result | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| Favourite won | 58.3% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 12 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓NAC Breda 2–1 Fortuna Sittard44·26·30
- ✗FC Volendam 2–2 AZ Alkmaar19·23·57
- ✗Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Utrecht28·26·45
- ✓Twente 0–2 PSV Eindhoven19·22·59
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Ajax26·25·49
- ✓Groningen 2–1 Heerenveen44·26·30
- ✓Heracles 1–4 NEC Nijmegen33·27·41
- ✓Excelsior 1–2 Feyenoord17·22·61
- ✗Telstar 0–2 PEC Zwolle47·26·27
- ✓Utrecht 4–0 Heracles63·22·16
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 18 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.