GO Ahead Eagles vs Twente – 8 Mar 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Mar 8 · 13:30 De Adelaarshorst, Deventer

GO Ahead Eagles 12th · 29 pts · 25 played DLLWW

First leg0–2 1–4Full time

Twente 5th · 41 pts · 25 played DWDWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente were slight favourites.

Twente were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. GO Ahead Eagles had 6.8 days of rest, Twente 7 and had to travel 50 km.

Away travel50 kmRest days6.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

GO Ahead Eagles27%

Draw26%

Twente47%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.65

GO Ahead Eagles32%

Draw27%

Twente41%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.43

GO Ahead Eagles27%

Draw26%

Twente48%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.65

GO Ahead Eagles21%

Draw24%

Twente55%

Expected goals 1.08 – 1.85

GO Ahead Eagles28%

Draw26%

Twente46%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.56

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Deventer)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos

Cards per match 3.6
Penalties per match 0.31
Matches 35

Team strength

GO Ahead Eagles

Twente

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

24 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

29 AttackIn forecast 41

17 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Twente

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

GO Ahead Eagles

Twente

1.52 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.64

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.04

1.12 xGVia Att/Def 1.85

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.21

84% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 28%

10.88 ShotsContext 18.04

4.92 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.48

43% On target shareContext 36%

8.24 Shots in the boxContext 11.56

69% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.70 OffsidesContext 1.57

17.92 Shots allowedContext 9.88

5.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.57

6.00 BlocksContext 3.17

4.32 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

77% Save rateContext 65%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

412 PassesContext 460

336 Accurate passesContext 374

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.94

9.16 FoulsContext 10.52

10.72 Fouls sufferedContext 9.64

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.52

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 2.04

1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.77

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

80% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.00 ShotsContext 19.80

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.60

37% On target shareContext 38%

8.78 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

68% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

1.43 OffsidesContext 1.50

16.40 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.33

5.30 BlocksContext 3.00

3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

76% Save rateContext 73%

48% PossessionIn forecast 54%

400 PassesContext 464

326 Accurate passesContext 376

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.83 Team ratingContext 7.05

9.80 FoulsContext 9.10

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km242 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Twente

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel50 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar	7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	50 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	242 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-3-3

22J. De Busser(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 2A. Sampsted

7J. Breum 21M. Meulensteen 17M. Suray

18R. Margaret 16V. Edvardsen 10S. Tengstedt

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Twente Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1L. Unnerstall(G)

39M. Rots 43Ruud Nijstad 23S. Lemkin 28B. van Rooij

20T. van den Belt 6R. Zerrouki 14K. Hlynsson

27S. Ørjasæter 10S. Lammers 11D. Rots

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

GO Ahead Eagles Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Twente Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

GO Ahead Eagles+0.5 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

GO Ahead Eagles · Home 1.50points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 4-6-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.33

Twente · Away 1.33points per game · 12 away games

W-D-L: 3-7-2
Scored: 1.58
Conceded: 1.17

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente
Excelsior	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Heracles	W 4–0 HL 2–4 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A
Heerenveen	L 1–3 HD 2–2 A	W 5–0 HW 2–1 A
Telstar	D 1–1 HL 2–4 A	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H
FC Volendam	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 A
Ajax	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H	L 2–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A	W 3–2 H
Groningen	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
AZ Alkmaar	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Utrecht	D 2–2 H	D 1–1 A
NAC Breda	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 A	L 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	D 1–1 H	D 3–3 A
PEC Zwolle	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–3 H	W 5–1 A
Points	29 of 72 · 1.21 per game	38 of 72 · 1.58 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 GO Ahead Eagles wins1 draws4 Twente wins

Goals per game1.00 – 2.60 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

14 Dec 2025Twente2–0GO Ahead Eagles
2 Feb 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Twente
1 Dec 2024Twente3–2GO Ahead Eagles
25 Feb 2024Twente3–0GO Ahead Eagles
3 Dec 2023GO Ahead Eagles1–3Twente

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.52	1.64
Conceded per game	1.56	1.04
Match goals	3.08	2.68	2.85
Over 1.5	88%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	40%	54%
Over 3.5	44%	28%
Both teams scored	64%	60%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	28%
Failed to score	16%	20%
Games	25	25

	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.80
Conceded per game	1.30	0.60
Match goals	2.60	2.40	2.85
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	50%	30%	54%
Over 3.5	50%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	5.32	5.04
Corners conceded	5.72	3.88
Match total	11.04	8.92	10.33
Over 8.5	84% 21/25	42% 10/24
Over 9.5	64% 16/25	29% 7/24
Over 10.5	52% 13/25	29% 7/24
Cards
Cards	1.76	1.64
Opponent cards	1.72	1.96
Match total	3.48	3.60	3.46
Over 3.5	44% 11/25	40% 10/25
Over 4.5	24% 6/25	32% 8/25

	GO Ahead Eagles	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	5.56
Corners conceded	5.30	4.33
Match total	11.30	9.89	10.33
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.70	2.80	3.46
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.29league 3.27

Red cards0.29league 0.18

Cards 5+23%league 29%

Fouls22.8league 21.4

Penalties0.31league 0.25

Home wins43%league 45%

GO Ahead Eagles6 with this referee

Record2-2-2 Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.2 Pens for · against0 · 1

D11 Jan 26H · Fortuna Sittard2–20
L18 May 25A · Waalwijk3–51
W7 Dec 24H · NEC Nijmegen5–02
L11 Aug 24H · Fortuna Sittard0–21
D16 Dec 23A · Excelsior1–12

Twente2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0

D13 Sep 25H · NAC Breda2–22
W15 Dec 24H · Groningen2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.