GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). GO Ahead Eagles had 2.7 days of rest, Utrecht 2.7 and had to travel 73 km.
Away travel73 kmRest days2.7 · 2.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
GO Ahead Eagles36%
Draw26%
Utrecht37%
GO Ahead Eagles36%
Draw27%
Utrecht36%
GO Ahead Eagles37%
Draw27%
Utrecht36%
GO Ahead Eagles29%
Draw26%
Utrecht45%
GO Ahead Eagles36%
Draw27%
Utrecht37%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 26
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Utrecht
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
29
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesUtrecht
1.62
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.77
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.28
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
85%
Scored inContext
85%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
10.69
ShotsContext
14.62
4.77
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
45%
On target shareContext
34%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.92
65%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
12%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.63
18.15
Shots allowedContext
11.31
5.77
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
6.91
BlocksContext
4.00
4.23
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
68%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
427
PassesContext
418
353
Accurate passesContext
338
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.93
8.85
FoulsContext
11.15
11.08
Fouls sufferedContext
10.77
1.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.15
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.91
xGVia Att/Def
0.89
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
70%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
6.80
ShotsContext
11.10
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
44%
On target shareContext
30%
4.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
64%
Box shareContext
59%
18%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.80
18.40
Shots allowedContext
13.50
6.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.78
BlocksContext
4.75
5.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
79%
Save rateContext
70%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
392
PassesContext
376
320
Accurate passesContext
298
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.75
9.60
FoulsContext
12.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km71 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Utrecht
Rest2.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel73 km3,806 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 18 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 2.7UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 73 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 71 km | 3,806 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
29A. Adelgaard
4J. Kramer
25G. van Zwam
2M. Deijl
34Y. Rahmouni
21M. Meulensteen
17M. Suray
24K. Goudmijn
11O. Sivertsen
9M. Smit
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
55D. Murkin
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
91S. Haller
22Miguel Rodríguez
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Utrecht+0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
1.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.17
Utrecht · Away
0.67points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-4
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.83
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 11 this season
| Opponent | GO Ahead Eagles | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | L 2–4 A | W 4–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 2–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Excelsior | W 2–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Telstar | L 2–4 A | D 1–1 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Heerenveen | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Points | 16 of 33 · 1.45 per game | 20 of 33 · 1.82 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 GO Ahead Eagles wins2 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.67 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 6 Apr 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–2Utrecht
- 15 Dec 2024Utrecht3–3GO Ahead Eagles
- 10 Dec 2023GO Ahead Eagles0–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.62 | 1.77 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 3.31 | 3.08 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 62% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 46% | |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 62% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 15% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.46 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.69 | 4.08 | |
| Match total | 11.15 | 8.83 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 85% 11/13 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 8/13 | 33% 4/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.15 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 1.69 | |
| Match total | 3.46 | 2.84 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 6/13 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 3/13 | 8% 1/13 | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.40 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.22 | 10.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.58league 3.34
Red cards0.08league 0.21
Cards 5+31%league 32%
Fouls23.2league 22.1
Penalties0.19league 0.28
Home wins50%league 49%
GO Ahead Eagles3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W26 Oct 25H · Excelsior2–01
- L25 Feb 24A · Twente0–32
- W2 Sep 23H · Heerenveen3–23
Utrecht3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.0.7 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W31 Aug 25A · PEC Zwolle2–01
- W30 Mar 25H · Heerenveen2–01
- W11 Aug 24H · PEC Zwolle1–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead Eagles12 games · scored 19 · conceded 22
4
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
5
76-90
Utrecht13 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
7
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
5
31-45
5
5
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
