GO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
GO Ahead Eagles were slight favourites.
GO Ahead Eagles were the stronger side on L90 Strength (24 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Willem II. GO Ahead Eagles had 83.2 days of rest, Willem II ? and had to travel 107 km.
Away travel107 kmRest days83.2 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
GO Ahead Eagles54%
Draw23%
Willem II23%
GO Ahead Eagles55%
Draw23%
Willem II21%
GO Ahead Eagles54%
Draw23%
Willem II23%
GO Ahead Eagles46%
Draw24%
Willem II29%
GO Ahead Eagles54%
Draw23%
Willem II23%
Over 2.5 56%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deventer)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.07
- Matches 30
Team strength
GO Ahead Eagles
Willem II
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
24
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
29
AttackIn forecast
10
17
DefenceIn forecast
9
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWillem II
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GO Ahead EaglesWillem II
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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—
FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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—
Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
—
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
2.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.90
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
70%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
9.56
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
41%
On target shareContext
34%
8.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
69%
Box shareContext
57%
16%
ConversionContext
7%
2.14
OffsidesContext
1.86
21.30
Shots allowedContext
19.22
5.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
6.80
BlocksContext
7.13
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
78%
Save rateContext
68%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
374
PassesContext
382
293
Accurate passesContext
306
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.92
7.70
FoulsContext
9.33
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.67
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest83.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Willem II
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel107 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| GO Ahead Eagles |
Willem II |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 83.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 107 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
1C. Haug(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
26J. Dirksen
2A. Sampsted
21M. Meulensteen
8H. Linthorst
17M. Suray
16V. Edvardsen
10S. Tengstedt
9S. Sigurðarson
Willem II
Confirmed XI
1T. Didillon-Hödl(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
4J. Hoogma
3F. Stam
22P. van Loon
7J. Slory
8Kasper Boogaard
2A. Ciranni
50Eser Gürbüz
19U. van Aalst
9D. Haen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences GO Ahead Eagles
Absences are shown before kick-off
Willem II
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Willem II+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
GO Ahead Eagles · Home
No home games yet this season.
Willem II · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 GO Ahead Eagles wins0 draws1 Willem II wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 16 Mar 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–0Willem II
- 18 Aug 2024Willem II2–0GO Ahead Eagles
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| GO Ahead Eagles | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | — | 2.94 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | — | 56% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | — | |
| Failed to score | 30% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| GO Ahead Eagles | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 14.50 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| GO Ahead Eagles | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 7.33 | |
| Match total | 11.80 | 11.22 | 14.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.70 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.93league 2.00
Red cards0.20league 0.00
Cards 5+20%league 0%
Fouls22.3league 21.5
Penalties0.07league 0.00
Home wins40%league 0%
GO Ahead Eagles5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.2 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L11 Feb 26H · Heerenveen1–31
- L23 Aug 25H · Sparta Rotterdam0–30
- W14 May 25H · Heerenveen1–01
- W16 Mar 25H · Willem II1–01
- D26 Nov 23A · NEC Nijmegen1–13
Willem II2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L16 Mar 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–12
- L8 Dec 24H · Heerenveen1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
GO Ahead EaglesWillem IIGO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
4
1
0-15
1
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
1
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 7 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
