GO Ahead Eagles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
GO Ahead Eagles53.5%fair odds 1.87
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Willem II22.4%fair odds 4.46
Expected goals1.83 – 1.11total 2.94
Likeliest score1–111.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Willem II
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| GO Ahead Eagles ↓ · Willem II → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are GO Ahead Eagles goals, columns Willem II goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.3%8.84
- 2–19.8%10.18
- 1–09.1%11.00
- 2–08.8%11.33
- 3–16.0%16.71
- 1–26.0%16.73
- 0–05.9%17.08
- 2–25.5%18.31
- 3–05.4%18.59
- 0–15.3%18.83
Winning margin
14.1%
GO Ahead Eagles by 3+
fair 7.09
16.6%
GO Ahead Eagles by 2
fair 6.04
22.9%
GO Ahead Eagles by 1
fair 4.37
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.16
13.7%
Willem II by 1
fair 7.30
6.1%
Willem II by 2
fair 16.31
2.6%
Willem II by 3+
fair 38.53
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
GO Ahead Eagles goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Willem II goals
33%0
37%1
20%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles win | 53.5% | 53.8% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.9% | +0.1 pp |
| Willem II win | 22.4% | 22.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 56.8% | -0.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.9% | 57.2% | -0.3 pp |
| Expected goals GO Ahead Eagles | 1.83 | 1.84 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals Willem II | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- GO Ahead Eagles win53.5%1.87
- Draw24.0%4.16
- Willem II win22.4%4.46
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or draw77.6%1.29
- Double chance GO Ahead Eagles or Willem II76.0%1.32
- Double chance Willem II or draw46.5%2.15
- Draw no bet GO Ahead Eagles70.5%1.42
- Draw no bet Willem II29.5%3.39
Goals
- Over 0.594.1%1.06
- Over 1.579.7%1.25
- Over 2.556.3%1.78
- Over 3.533.9%2.95
- Over 4.517.5%5.72
- Under 1.520.3%4.94
- Under 2.543.7%2.29
- Under 3.566.1%1.51
Both teams to score
- Yes56.9%1.76
- No43.1%2.32
- Yes and over 2.545.6%2.19
- GO Ahead Eagles win and yes26.5%3.77
- Draw and yes18.2%5.50
- Willem II win and yes12.2%8.20
Team goals
- GO Ahead Eagles over 0.583.9%1.19
- GO Ahead Eagles over 1.554.5%1.83
- GO Ahead Eagles over 2.527.7%3.61
- Willem II over 0.567.1%1.49
- Willem II over 1.530.5%3.27
- Willem II over 2.510.2%9.80
- GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet32.9%3.04
- Willem II clean sheet16.1%6.22
- GO Ahead Eagles win to nil27.0%3.70
- Willem II win to nil10.2%9.78
Handicap
- GO Ahead Eagles −1.530.7%3.26
- GO Ahead Eagles −2.514.1%7.09
- Willem II +1.569.3%1.44
- Willem II +2.585.9%1.16
- Willem II −1.58.7%11.46
- GO Ahead Eagles +1.591.3%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored2
Favourite won0.0%
Avg chance given to result24.1%
1X2 Brier0.913
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40–50% | 1 | 47.6% | 0.0% |
| 50–60% | 1 | 58.3% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 2 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 2 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.