Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were clear favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 12). Goztepe had 6 days of rest, Fatih Karagümrük 7 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days6 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Goztepe63%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük15%
Goztepe65%
Draw21%
Fatih Karagümrük14%
Goztepe63%
Draw22%
Fatih Karagümrük15%
Goztepe56%
Draw25%
Fatih Karagümrük20%
Goztepe65%
Draw21%
Fatih Karagümrük14%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 49%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeÖmer Tolga Güldibi
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 5
Team strength
Goztepe
Fatih Karagümrük
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
12
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
15
39
AttackIn forecast
13
36
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFatih Karagümrük
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeFatih Karagümrük
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.84
0.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.95
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.01
79%
Scored inContext
53%
58%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
13.11
ShotsContext
10.00
4.72
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.12
34%
On target shareContext
28%
8.42
Shots in the boxContext
5.11
64%
Box shareContext
52%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.82
12.32
Shots allowedContext
14.58
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.11
3.89
BlocksContext
3.33
2.94
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
84%
Save rateContext
64%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
239
PassesContext
357
165
Accurate passesContext
281
69%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.63
16.89
FoulsContext
13.42
9.05
Fouls sufferedContext
14.32
2.26
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.20
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
90%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.60
ShotsContext
8.80
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.88
33%
On target shareContext
26%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
4.60
69%
Box shareContext
53%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
1.71
OffsidesContext
3.20
14.10
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.10
4.10
BlocksContext
3.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
81%
Save rateContext
64%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
228
PassesContext
349
153
Accurate passesContext
274
67%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.74
16.80
FoulsContext
13.10
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fatih Karagümrük
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Fatih Karagümrük |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 25 Jan | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 24 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
30A. Dennis
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
2A. Kurtulan
10Junior Olaitan
9Juan
39Janderson
Fatih Karagümrük
Confirmed XI
13I. Grbić(G)
33Ç. Kurukalıp
94Anıl Yiğit Çınar
4D. Biraschi
47Ricardo Esgaio
8B. Özcan
5M. Kranevitter
72Baris Kalayci
23S. Larsson
70Serginho
80S. Babicka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fatih Karagümrük
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe-0.3 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Fatih Karagümrük+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.00points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.44
Fatih Karagümrük · Away
0.44points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-7
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | L 2–3 A |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 3–4 H |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 HL 0–3 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 33 of 54 · 1.83 per game | 9 of 54 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Goztepe wins0 draws0 Fatih Karagümrük wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 22 Aug 2025Fatih Karagümrük0–2Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 0.84 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.58 | 1.95 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 2.79 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 63% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 47% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 47% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 58% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 47% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Goztepe | Fatih Karagümrük | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 3.37 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.05 | 5.47 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 8.84 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 12/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 58% 11/19 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 37% 7/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.47 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.26 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.73 | 4.00 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 12/19 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 42% 8/19 | 26% 5/19 | |
| Goztepe | Fatih Karagümrük | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 2.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.20 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.00 | 4.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ömer Tolga Güldibi 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.60league 4.35
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+40%league 44%
Fouls26.4league 25.8
Penalties0.20league 0.26
Home wins40%league 35%
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W8 Nov 25A · Kasimpasa2–03
Fatih Karagümrük1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L3 Nov 25A · Rizespor0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe19 games · scored 25 · conceded 11
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük19 games · scored 16 · conceded 37
5
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
6
46-60
2
11
61-75
6
6
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 14 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Fatih Karagümrük10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
