Goztepe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Goztepe63.0%fair odds 1.59
Draw22.2%fair odds 4.50
Fatih Karagümrük14.8%fair odds 6.75
Expected goals1.95 – 0.84total 2.78
Likeliest score2–011.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Fatih Karagümrük
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Goztepe ↓ · Fatih Karagümrük → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Goztepe goals, columns Fatih Karagümrük goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.7%8.52
- 1–011.5%8.69
- 1–110.6%9.44
- 2–19.8%10.20
- 3–07.6%13.12
- 0–06.7%14.91
- 3–16.4%15.70
- 0–14.6%21.62
- 1–24.2%23.81
- 2–24.1%24.43
Winning margin
19.1%
Goztepe by 3+
fair 5.24
19.5%
Goztepe by 2
fair 5.12
24.4%
Goztepe by 1
fair 4.11
22.2%
Draw
fair 4.50
10.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 1
fair 9.87
3.6%
Fatih Karagümrük by 2
fair 27.85
1.1%
Fatih Karagümrük by 3+
fair 91.62
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Goztepe goals
14%0
28%1
27%2
18%3
13%4+
Fatih Karagümrük goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe win | 63.0% | 64.5% | -1.5 pp |
| Draw | 22.2% | 21.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Fatih Karagümrük win | 14.8% | 14.4% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.7% | 56.2% | -3.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.1% | 51.2% | -2.1 pp |
| Expected goals Goztepe | 1.95 | 2.06 | -0.11 |
| Expected goals Fatih Karagümrük | 0.84 | 0.87 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Goztepe win63.0%1.59
- Draw22.2%4.50
- Fatih Karagümrük win14.8%6.75
- Double chance Goztepe or draw85.2%1.17
- Double chance Goztepe or Fatih Karagümrük77.8%1.29
- Double chance Fatih Karagümrük or draw37.0%2.70
- Draw no bet Goztepe81.0%1.24
- Draw no bet Fatih Karagümrük19.0%5.25
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.2%1.30
- Over 2.552.7%1.90
- Over 3.530.5%3.28
- Over 4.515.0%6.67
- Under 1.522.8%4.38
- Under 2.547.3%2.11
- Under 3.569.5%1.44
Both teams to score
- Yes49.1%2.04
- No50.9%1.96
- Yes and over 2.538.5%2.60
- Goztepe win and yes26.3%3.80
- Draw and yes15.5%6.45
- Fatih Karagümrük win and yes7.3%13.73
Team goals
- Goztepe over 0.585.8%1.17
- Goztepe over 1.558.0%1.72
- Goztepe over 2.531.0%3.23
- Fatih Karagümrük over 0.556.6%1.77
- Fatih Karagümrük over 1.520.4%4.90
- Fatih Karagümrük over 2.55.3%18.99
- Goztepe clean sheet43.4%2.31
- Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet14.2%7.02
- Goztepe win to nil36.7%2.73
- Fatih Karagümrük win to nil7.5%13.28
Handicap
- Goztepe −1.538.6%2.59
- Goztepe −2.519.1%5.24
- Fatih Karagümrük +1.561.4%1.63
- Fatih Karagümrük +2.580.9%1.24
- Fatih Karagümrük −1.54.7%21.36
- Goztepe +1.595.3%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored175
Favourite won46.9%
Avg chance given to result39.9%
1X2 Brier0.602
Over 2.5 called right52.0%
BTTS called right53.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 24 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 75 | 44.3% | 33.3% |
| 50–60% | 43 | 55.0% | 53.5% |
| 60–70% | 19 | 65.2% | 73.7% |
| 70–80% | 12 | 76.1% | 83.3% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 149 of 175 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6097 | 0.5976 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.5% | 40.7% |
| Favourite won | 47.7% | 48.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 149 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 175 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.