Goztepe vs Fenerbahce – 16 Aug 2025

Süper Lig Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 16 · 19:30 Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı, İzmir

Goztepe 4th · 3 pts · 1 played W

0–0Full time

Fenerbahce

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Fenerbahce were slight favourites.

Fenerbahce were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 24). Goztepe had 6.1 days of rest, Fenerbahce ? and had to travel 328 km.

Away travel328 kmRest days6.1 · ?Matches / 14d1 · 0

Goztepe21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.81

Goztepe21%

Draw25%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.77

Goztepe21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.01 – 1.80

Goztepe16%

Draw22%

Fenerbahce63%

Expected goals 0.91 – 2.03

Goztepe21%

Draw24%

Fenerbahce55%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.78

Over 2.5 54% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İzmir)

No weather data yet

RefereeYasin Kol

Cards per match 5.8
Penalties per match 0.37
Matches 19

Team strength

Goztepe

Fenerbahce

24 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 62

39 AttackIn forecast 75

36 DefenceIn forecast 53

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Goztepe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Fenerbahce

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Goztepe

Fenerbahce

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 2.27

1.19 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

80% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

19.30 ShotsContext 17.10

6.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60

33% On target shareContext 39%

13.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

69% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 3.29

11.40 Shots allowedContext 10.30

3.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

3.67 BlocksContext 3.00

2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

56% Save rateContext 67%

49% PossessionIn forecast 55%

333 PassesContext 438

246 Accurate passesContext 369

74% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.05 Team ratingContext 7.09

16.10 FoulsContext 12.10

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Goztepe

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km2,359 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Fenerbahce

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel328 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Goztepe	Fenerbahce
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 10 Aug	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,359 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	6	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Goztepe Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1M. Lis(G)

26M. Bokele 5Héliton 3Allan

15A. Cherni 30A. Dennis 6Rhaldney 2A. Kurtulan

10Junior Olaitan

39Janderson 9Juan

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Fenerbahce Confirmed XI

3-1-4-2

1İ. Eğribayat(G)

24J. Oosterwolde 95Y. Akçiçek 37M. Škriniar

34S. Amrabat

33A. Brown 53S. Szymański 7Fred 27Nélson Semedo

19Y. En-Nesyri 10J. Durán

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Goztepe Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Fenerbahce Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Goztepe+0.1 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Fenerbahce+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Goztepe · Home No home games yet this season.

Fenerbahce · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Goztepe wins1 draws1 Fenerbahce wins

Goals per game2.00 – 2.50 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

26 Jan 2025Fenerbahce3–2Goztepe
17 Aug 2024Goztepe2–2Fenerbahce

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Goztepe	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	—
Conceded per game	0.00	—
Match goals	3.00	—	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	100%	—	54%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	0%	—	54%
Clean sheets	100%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

	Goztepe	Fenerbahce	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	—
Conceded per game	0.00	—
Match goals	3.00	—	2.83
Over 1.5	100%	—
Over 2.5	100%	—	54%
Over 3.5	0%	—
Both teams scored	0%	—	54%
Clean sheets	100%	—
Failed to score	0%	—
Games	1	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Goztepe	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	—
Corners conceded	3.00	—
Match total	8.00	—	8.75
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	—
Cards
Cards	1.00	—
Opponent cards	2.00	—
Match total	3.00	—	3.38
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	—
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	—

	Goztepe	Fenerbahce	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	6.44
Corners conceded	3.40	3.56
Match total	9.00	10.00	8.75
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	1.80	1.90
Match total	3.70	4.20	3.38
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Yasin Kol 19 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.37league 3.00

Red cards0.42league 0.38

Cards 5+63%league 38%

Fouls26.6league 24.6

Penalties0.37league 0.50

Home wins32%league 50%

Goztepe2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D16 Mar 25H · Eyüpspor1–14
D10 Feb 25A · BB Bodrumspor0–01

Fenerbahce2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 3.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L4 May 25H · Besiktas0–13
W13 Apr 25A · Sivasspor3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.