Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Goztepe
5th · 13 pts · 7 played
WDDWD
1–0Full time
Istanbul Basaksehir
13th · 6 pts · 6 played
DLWDL
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Istanbul Basaksehir. Goztepe had 8.1 days of rest, Istanbul Basaksehir 7.1 and had to travel 328 km.
Away travel328 kmRest days8.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Goztepe47%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir27%
Goztepe46%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir27%
Goztepe45%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir28%
Goztepe39%
Draw27%
Istanbul Basaksehir34%
Goztepe47%
Draw26%
Istanbul Basaksehir26%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeCihan Aydin
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.60
- Matches 5
Team strength
GoztepeIstanbul Basaksehir
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
36
39
AttackIn forecast
32
36
DefenceIn forecast
35
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisIstanbul Basaksehir
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeIstanbul Basaksehir
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.04
71%
Scored inContext
83%
71%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
14.86
ShotsContext
10.83
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
34%
On target shareContext
32%
8.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.17
58%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.50
9.86
Shots allowedContext
12.17
2.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.83
3.83
BlocksContext
3.17
1.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
87%
Save rateContext
78%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
252
PassesContext
418
178
Accurate passesContext
354
71%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.85
17.43
FoulsContext
13.83
9.43
Fouls sufferedContext
12.17
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.48
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.90
ShotsContext
10.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
31%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
62%
Box shareContext
67%
9%
ConversionContext
11%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.20
Shots allowedContext
13.10
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
1.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
61%
Save rateContext
71%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
261
PassesContext
421
187
Accurate passesContext
352
71%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.83
16.70
FoulsContext
12.80
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km656 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Istanbul Basaksehir
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel328 km926 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Istanbul Basaksehir |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 27 Sep | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 28 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 328 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 656 km | 926 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
6Rhaldney
39Janderson
9Juan
Istanbul Basaksehir
Confirmed XI
16M. Şengezer(G)
3J. Opoku
2B. Özdemir
27O. Ba
18J. Kałuziński
21C. Opéri
25A. Harit
13Miguel Crespo
42Ö. Şahiner
14E. Shomurodov
10Nuno da Costa
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Istanbul Basaksehir
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Istanbul Basaksehir-0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.33
Istanbul Basaksehir · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Istanbul Basaksehir |
|---|---|---|
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 2–0 A |
| Points | 9 of 15 · 1.80 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Goztepe wins0 draws1 Istanbul Basaksehir wins
Goals per game2.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 28 Apr 2025Goztepe4–1Istanbul Basaksehir
- 30 Nov 2024Istanbul Basaksehir4–1Goztepe
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 2.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 17% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
| Goztepe | Istanbul Basaksehir | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.29 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 2.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 33% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 67% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 71% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 17% | |
| Games | 7 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.86 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 9.15 | 10.83 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 5.16 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Goztepe | Istanbul Basaksehir | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 10.40 | 9.46 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Cihan Aydin Türkiye · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.20league 4.65
Red cards0.20league 0.29
Cards 5+20%league 53%
Fouls29.4league 26.9
Penalties0.60league 0.29
Home wins20%league 37%
GoztepeNo previous matches with this referee.
Istanbul BasaksehirNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe7 games · scored 10 · conceded 2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir6 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
Istanbul Basaksehir10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
