Goztepe vs Kasimpasa – 12 Apr 2026

Süper Lig Gameweek 29 Sun, Apr 12 · 15:00 Gürsel Aksel Stadyumu, İzmir

Goztepe 6th · 46 pts · 28 played DLDWL

3–3Full time

Kasimpasa 14th · 27 pts · 28 played LDWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Goztepe were slight favourites.

Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 17). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Goztepe. Goztepe had 3.9 days of rest, Kasimpasa 8.1 and had to travel 328 km.

Away travel328 kmRest days3.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

Goztepe56%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa18%

Expected goals 1.65 – 0.84

Goztepe55%

Draw25%

Kasimpasa21%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.01

Goztepe55%

Draw26%

Kasimpasa19%

Expected goals 1.62 – 0.84

Goztepe49%

Draw28%

Kasimpasa24%

Expected goals 1.47 – 0.94

Goztepe57%

Draw25%

Kasimpasa18%

Expected goals 1.73 – 0.87

Over 2.5 45% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (İzmir)

No weather data yet

Referee · TürkiyeCagdas Altay

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.07
Matches 14

Team strength

Goztepe

Kasimpasa

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 17

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 23

39 AttackIn forecast 21

36 DefenceIn forecast 32

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Goztepe

Attack—

Defense risk—

Kasimpasa

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Goztepe

Kasimpasa

1.18 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.89

0.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.36

1.25 xGVia Att/Def 0.83

0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

71% Scored inContext 64%

54% Clean sheetsContext 25%

13.25 ShotsContext 9.39

4.59 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.80

33% On target shareContext 27%

8.61 Shots in the boxContext 5.63

65% Box shareContext 57%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.95

11.39 Shots allowedContext 11.39

3.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.86

3.56 BlocksContext 3.38

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.84

77% Save rateContext 70%

38% PossessionIn forecast 45%

247 PassesContext 332

171 Accurate passesContext 258

69% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.71

16.46 FoulsContext 15.68

9.36 Fouls sufferedContext 12.96

2.29 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 28 and 28 games

0.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.92

1.02 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext +0.18

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.60 ShotsContext 8.00

4.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.30

32% On target shareContext 29%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 4.30

66% Box shareContext 55%

7% ConversionContext 14%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.50

10.40 Shots allowedContext 10.70

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.20 BlocksContext 3.89

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

63% Save rateContext 64%

39% PossessionIn forecast 44%

252 PassesContext 346

174 Accurate passesContext 268

69% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.67 Team ratingContext 6.67

16.10 FoulsContext 17.60

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 14.30

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 3.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Goztepe

Rest3.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,041 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Kasimpasa

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel328 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Goztepe	Kasimpasa
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.9Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Apr	8.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 4 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	328 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,041 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 2	0 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Goztepe Confirmed XI

3-4-1-2

1M. Lis(G)

26M. Bokele 5Héliton 3Allan

15A. Cherni 20N. Miroshi 30A. Dennis 2A. Kurtulan

11Efkan Bekiroğlu

9Juan 39Janderson

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Kasimpasa Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1A. Gianniotis(G)

21G. Frimpong 4Adem Arous 50Rodrigo Becão 2C. Winck Neto

16A. Baldursson 26K. Demirbay

12A. Ben Ouanes 34F. Diabaté 71İ. Kahveci

19A. Benedyczak

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Goztepe Absences are shown before kick-off

Kasimpasa Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Goztepe+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Kasimpasa-0.4 pp

Home / Away this season

Goztepe · Home 1.71points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-6-2
Scored: 1.21
Conceded: 0.71

Kasimpasa · Away 0.93points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 3-4-7
Scored: 0.93
Conceded: 1.43

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Goztepe	Kasimpasa
Galatasaray	L 1–3 HL 1–3 A	L 0–3 A
Genclerbirligi	W 2–0 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Alanyaspor	D 2–2 HL 0–1 A	W 2–1 A
Istanbul Basaksehir	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 H
Eyüpspor	D 0–0 HD 0–0 A	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
Besiktas	L 0–4 AW 3–0 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Kayserispor	D 0–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 HL 2–3 A
Konyaspor	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Fatih Karagümrük	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A	W 3–2 HW 1–0 A
Fenerbahce	D 1–1 AD 0–0 H	D 1–1 AD 1–1 H
Rizespor	W 3–1 HW 3–0 A	L 0–3 HW 2–1 A
Samsunspor	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Gazişehir Gaziantep	W 1–0 A	L 1–2 AL 2–3 H
Trabzonspor	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 AL 0–1 H
Antalyaspor	W 2–1 A	D 0–0 HL 1–2 A
Kocaelispor	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 A
Points	43 of 81 · 1.59 per game	27 of 81 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

3 Goztepe wins0 draws0 Kasimpasa wins

Goals per game3.00 – 0.33 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 0%

8 Nov 2025Kasimpasa0–2Goztepe
30 May 2025Kasimpasa1–2Goztepe
13 Jan 2025Goztepe5–0Kasimpasa

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Goztepe	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	1.18	0.89
Conceded per game	0.82	1.36
Match goals	2.00	2.25	2.49
Over 1.5	64%	71%
Over 2.5	39%	43%	45%
Over 3.5	18%	14%
Both teams scored	39%	54%	47%
Clean sheets	54%	25%
Failed to score	29%	36%
Games	28	28

	Goztepe	Kasimpasa	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	1.10
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	2.20	2.50	2.49
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	45%
Over 3.5	30%	10%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	47%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Goztepe	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.57	4.15
Corners conceded	4.82	4.58
Match total	9.39	8.73	9.44
Over 8.5	61% 17/28	46% 12/26
Over 9.5	50% 14/28	35% 9/26
Over 10.5	32% 9/28	19% 5/26
Cards
Cards	2.43	2.61
Opponent cards	2.21	2.32
Match total	4.64	4.93	4.63
Over 3.5	61% 17/28	75% 21/28
Over 4.5	43% 12/28	43% 12/28

	Goztepe	Kasimpasa	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	2.80
Corners conceded	4.70	3.80
Match total	9.30	6.60	9.44
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	3.30
Opponent cards	2.20	2.60
Match total	4.70	5.90	4.63
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Cagdas Altay Türkiye · 14 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.07league 4.40

Red cards0.14league 0.21

Cards 5+7%league 44%

Fouls24.4league 26.1

Penalties0.07league 0.27

Home wins43%league 40%

Goztepe

No previous matches with this referee.

Kasimpasa2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

L30 Jan 26H · Samsunspor0–13
W28 Sep 25A · Rizespor2–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.