Goztepe
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Goztepe55.9%fair odds 1.79
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.90
Kasimpasa18.4%fair odds 5.43
Expected goals1.65 – 0.84total 2.49
Likeliest score1–013.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Kasimpasa
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Goztepe ↓ · Kasimpasa → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Goztepe goals, columns Kasimpasa goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–013.0%7.67
- 1–112.1%8.26
- 2–011.3%8.88
- 2–19.5%10.54
- 0–08.9%11.27
- 0–16.3%15.75
- 3–06.2%16.13
- 3–15.2%19.15
- 1–24.8%20.67
- 2–24.0%25.04
Winning margin
13.5%
Goztepe by 3+
fair 7.43
17.5%
Goztepe by 2
fair 5.72
25.0%
Goztepe by 1
fair 4.00
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.90
12.4%
Kasimpasa by 1
fair 8.03
4.5%
Kasimpasa by 2
fair 22.00
1.4%
Kasimpasa by 3+
fair 70.40
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Goztepe goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Kasimpasa goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goztepe win | 55.9% | 57.1% | -1.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 24.7% | +0.9 pp |
| Kasimpasa win | 18.4% | 18.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.4% | 48.3% | -2.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 46.6% | 48.5% | -1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Goztepe | 1.65 | 1.73 | -0.08 |
| Expected goals Kasimpasa | 0.84 | 0.87 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Goztepe win55.9%1.79
- Draw25.6%3.90
- Kasimpasa win18.4%5.43
- Double chance Goztepe or draw81.6%1.23
- Double chance Goztepe or Kasimpasa74.4%1.34
- Double chance Kasimpasa or draw44.1%2.27
- Draw no bet Goztepe75.2%1.33
- Draw no bet Kasimpasa24.8%4.04
Goals
- Over 0.591.1%1.10
- Over 1.571.7%1.39
- Over 2.545.4%2.20
- Over 3.524.1%4.15
- Over 4.510.8%9.27
- Under 1.528.3%3.54
- Under 2.554.6%1.83
- Under 3.575.9%1.32
Both teams to score
- Yes46.6%2.15
- No53.4%1.87
- Yes and over 2.534.5%2.90
- Goztepe win and yes21.7%4.60
- Draw and yes16.8%5.96
- Kasimpasa win and yes8.1%12.34
Team goals
- Goztepe over 0.580.8%1.24
- Goztepe over 1.549.1%2.03
- Goztepe over 2.523.0%4.35
- Kasimpasa over 0.556.9%1.76
- Kasimpasa over 1.520.6%4.85
- Kasimpasa over 2.55.4%18.64
- Goztepe clean sheet43.1%2.32
- Kasimpasa clean sheet19.2%5.21
- Goztepe win to nil34.2%2.92
- Kasimpasa win to nil10.3%9.70
Handicap
- Goztepe −1.531.0%3.23
- Goztepe −2.513.5%7.43
- Kasimpasa +1.569.0%1.45
- Kasimpasa +2.586.5%1.16
- Kasimpasa −1.56.0%16.76
- Goztepe +1.594.0%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Süper Lig 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored257
Favourite won52.5%
Avg chance given to result41.0%
1X2 Brier0.581
Over 2.5 called right54.5%
BTTS called right52.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 39 | 38.2% | 38.5% |
| 40–50% | 102 | 44.1% | 41.2% |
| 50–60% | 67 | 55.0% | 59.7% |
| 60–70% | 29 | 65.3% | 75.9% |
| 70–80% | 16 | 75.7% | 75.0% |
| 80%+ | 4 | 82.1% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 207 of 257 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5835 | 0.5685 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.9% | 42.2% |
| Favourite won | 54.1% | 54.6% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 207 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 257 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.