Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Goztepe were slight favourites.
Goztepe were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 13). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Kayserispor. Goztepe had 7 days of rest, Kayserispor 6 and had to travel 726 km.
Away travel726 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Goztepe57%
Draw25%
Kayserispor18%
Goztepe62%
Draw22%
Kayserispor16%
Goztepe58%
Draw25%
Kayserispor17%
Goztepe50%
Draw27%
Kayserispor23%
Goztepe59%
Draw24%
Kayserispor17%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
RefereeAlper Akarsu
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 25
Team strength
Goztepe
Kayserispor
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
13
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
39
AttackIn forecast
16
36
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKayserispor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeKayserispor
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.81
0.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.05
1.11
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
76%
Scored inContext
62%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.05
ShotsContext
10.95
4.65
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.62
34%
On target shareContext
33%
8.52
Shots in the boxContext
6.14
65%
Box shareContext
55%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
1.67
OffsidesContext
2.18
12.05
Shots allowedContext
14.43
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.57
3.70
BlocksContext
3.76
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
84%
Save rateContext
70%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
241
PassesContext
351
165
Accurate passesContext
281
69%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.66
16.95
FoulsContext
12.57
9.19
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.33
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.60
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.38
Goals minus xGContext
-0.25
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
9.60
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.80
34%
On target shareContext
29%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
4.90
70%
Box shareContext
51%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
1.29
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.50
Shots allowedContext
16.80
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.90
BlocksContext
5.11
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
82%
Save rateContext
74%
37%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
234
PassesContext
340
157
Accurate passesContext
273
67%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.71
17.90
FoulsContext
11.50
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km943 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Kayserispor
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel726 km1,225 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Kayserispor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Süper Lig 2025-2026, 8 Feb | 6Süper Lig 2025-2026, 9 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 726 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 943 km | 1,225 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
3Allan
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
77O. Bayrak
10F. Krastev
14Guilherme Luiz
39Janderson
Kayserispor
Confirmed XI
25B. Bayazıt(G)
23L. Carole
4S. Denswil
6S. Güler
24D. Toköz
8L. Bénes
33F. Soyalp
30J. Brenet
28R. Civelek
7Miguel Cardoso
9G. Onugkha
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Kayserispor
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe-0.7 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Kayserispor+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.10points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-3-1
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 0.50
Kayserispor · Away
0.82points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-6-4
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 1.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Kayserispor |
|---|---|---|
| Konyaspor | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–1 HW 2–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 1–1 AD 0–0 H | L 2–4 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–1 HW 3–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Samsunspor | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | W 1–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Trabzonspor | L 1–2 H | L 0–4 A |
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Genclerbirligi | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | L 0–4 AL 0–4 H |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | L 0–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Besiktas | W 3–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–4 H |
| Points | 39 of 60 · 1.95 per game | 14 of 60 · 0.70 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Goztepe wins1 draws1 Kayserispor wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 14 Sep 2025Kayserispor1–1Goztepe
- 23 Feb 2025Kayserispor1–0Goztepe
- 23 Sep 2024Goztepe3–0Kayserispor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.81 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.57 | 2.05 | |
| Match goals | 1.86 | 2.86 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 52% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 57% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 38% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| Goztepe | Kayserispor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 0.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 50% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 4.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.90 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 9.42 | 9.48 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 13/21 | 68% 13/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 47% 9/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 7/21 | 32% 6/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.52 | 2.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.38 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.90 | 4.61 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 14/21 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Goztepe | Kayserispor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 3.89 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 8.89 | 9.40 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.20 | 4.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alper Akarsu 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.48league 4.46
Red cards0.12league 0.23
Cards 5+48%league 47%
Fouls23.4league 26.0
Penalties0.40league 0.27
Home wins44%league 37%
Goztepe2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L4 Jan 25A · Galatasaray1–22
- W24 Nov 24A · Besiktas4–20
Kayserispor2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L24 Aug 25H · Galatasaray0–42
- L7 Jan 24H · Sivasspor1–34
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe21 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
6
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Kayserispor21 games · scored 17 · conceded 43
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
5
10
61-75
7
9
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 14 · conceded 6
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
Kayserispor10 games · scored 6 · conceded 19
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
7
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
