Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rizespor. Goztepe had 8 days of rest, Rizespor 8.1 and had to travel 1,180 km.
Away travel1,180 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Goztepe39%
Draw24%
Rizespor37%
Goztepe46%
Draw25%
Rizespor29%
Goztepe41%
Draw24%
Rizespor35%
Goztepe31%
Draw24%
Rizespor45%
Goztepe40%
Draw24%
Rizespor37%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeOguzhan Cakir
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.42
- Matches 26
Team strength
Goztepe
Rizespor
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
22
39
AttackIn forecast
22
36
DefenceIn forecast
35
9
Form indexContext
47
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRizespor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeRizespor
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
2.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.74
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.58
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.40
ShotsContext
16.20
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
31%
11.80
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
77%
Box shareContext
56%
12%
ConversionContext
6%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.60
19.60
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
6.20
BlocksContext
4.50
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
57%
Save rateContext
81%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
278
PassesContext
451
192
Accurate passesContext
388
69%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.59
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.60
FoulsContext
11.60
8.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.80
ShotsContext
14.60
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
31%
On target shareContext
30%
12.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
75%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
2.56
OffsidesContext
1.75
16.80
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.40
4.70
BlocksContext
4.33
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
68%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
247
PassesContext
417
170
Accurate passesContext
353
69%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.80
17.00
FoulsContext
11.70
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
DLLLD
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km953 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 2 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
Rizespor
WLWLW
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,180 km1,940 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Form 47 · 9 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Rizespor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 8.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,180 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 953 km | 1,940 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22 | 20 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1A. Özçimen(G)
26M. Bokele
13E. Yildirim
4T. Altıkardeş
12R. Akonnor
5Rhaldney
6A. Matos
2A. Kurtulan
7André Henrique
9Juan
39Janderson
Rizespor
Confirmed XI
75Y. Fofana(G)
54M. Pala
93M. Sagnan
4A. Mocsi
5T. Sanuç
37M. Şahin
20Q. Laçi
14T. Antalyalı
10I. Olawoyin
99E. Bulut
9A. Sowe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.10 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rizespor
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe-1.9 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rizespor+2.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.50
Rizespor · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Rizespor |
|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Gazişehir Gaziantep | L 2–4 H | W 2–1 A |
| Samsunspor | D 3–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 2 of 9 · 0.67 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 Goztepe wins0 draws1 Rizespor wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 19 Jan 2026Goztepe3–1Rizespor
- 10 Aug 2025Rizespor0–3Goztepe
- 18 May 2025Rizespor6–3Goztepe
- 22 Dec 2024Goztepe3–0Rizespor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 1.80 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 20% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 20% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Goztepe | Rizespor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.80 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.40 | 6.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 10.75 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 4/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.20 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Goztepe | Rizespor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 5.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.13 | 10.00 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.20 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.60 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oguzhan Cakir Türkiye · 26 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.79
Red cards0.15league 0.15
Cards 5+35%league 40%
Fouls26.6league 25.2
Penalties0.42league 0.33
Home wins38%league 48%
Goztepe3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W25 Apr 26H · Antalyaspor2–02
- L26 Oct 25A · Galatasaray1–32
- L18 May 25A · Rizespor3–61
Rizespor2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D8 Nov 25A · Gazişehir Gaziantep2–22
- W18 May 25H · Goztepe6–30
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe5 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Rizespor5 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 15 · conceded 19
4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
5
76-90
Rizespor10 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
3
7
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
