Goztepe
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Trabzonspor were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 31). Absences weigh more on Trabzonspor. Goztepe had 7.1 days of rest, Trabzonspor 8 and had to travel 1,114 km.
Away travel1,114 kmRest days7.1 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Goztepe38%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor35%
Goztepe38%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor35%
Goztepe37%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor36%
Goztepe31%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor42%
Goztepe39%
Draw27%
Trabzonspor34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (İzmir)
No weather data yet
Referee · TürkiyeAtilla Karaoglan
- Cards per match 6.3
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 18
Team strength
Goztepe
Trabzonspor
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
39
AttackIn forecast
54
36
DefenceIn forecast
48
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisTrabzonspor
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GoztepeTrabzonspor
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.79
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
0.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.40
71%
Scored inContext
86%
64%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
12.93
ShotsContext
14.50
4.62
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.21
33%
On target shareContext
36%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
9.77
64%
Box shareContext
63%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
1.77
OffsidesContext
2.45
11.21
Shots allowedContext
14.07
3.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.92
3.31
BlocksContext
4.15
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
87%
Save rateContext
91%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
247
PassesContext
404
171
Accurate passesContext
344
69%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.00
16.93
FoulsContext
12.07
9.36
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
2.07
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.49
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.61
70%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.90
ShotsContext
15.50
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
33%
On target shareContext
40%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
11.11
66%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.20
Shots allowedContext
15.70
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.78
BlocksContext
4.50
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
87%
Save rateContext
91%
39%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
246
PassesContext
399
168
Accurate passesContext
339
68%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.99
16.40
FoulsContext
12.90
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Goztepe
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km710 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Trabzonspor
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,114 km1,807 km in 14d
Schedule load17%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Goztepe |
Trabzonspor |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 17 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Süper Lig 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 8Süper Lig 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,114 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 710 km | 1,807 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Goztepe
Confirmed XI
1M. Lis(G)
26M. Bokele
5Héliton
4T. Altıkardeş
15A. Cherni
20N. Miroshi
30A. Dennis
2A. Kurtulan
11Efkan Bekiroğlu
9Juan
39Janderson
Trabzonspor
Confirmed XI
24A. Onana(G)
19M. Eskihellaç
44A. Batagov
29S. Saatçı
20Wagner Pina
26Tim Jabol-Folcarelli
11O. Tufan
70K. Olaigbe
10E. Muçi
22O. Zubkov
30E. Onuachu
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Goztepe
Absences are shown before kick-off
Trabzonspor
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Goztepe+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Trabzonspor-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Goztepe · Home
2.00points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.17
Trabzonspor · Away
2.17points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-1
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Goztepe | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Antalyaspor | W 2–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Kocaelispor | D 0–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Kasimpasa | W 2–0 A | W 1–0 A |
| Galatasaray | L 1–3 A | D 0–0 A |
| Alanyaspor | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | W 1–0 H | W 4–3 A |
| Eyüpspor | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Kayserispor | D 1–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| Konyaspor | D 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Fatih Karagümrük | W 2–0 A | W 4–3 A |
| Fenerbahce | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rizespor | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 20 of 36 · 1.67 per game | 29 of 36 · 2.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Goztepe wins1 draws0 Trabzonspor wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 29 Mar 2025Trabzonspor1–1Goztepe
- 26 Oct 2024Goztepe2–1Trabzonspor
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Goztepe | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 1.79 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 1.71 | 2.64 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 36% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 29% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 64% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Goztepe | Trabzonspor | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.70 | 3.20 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Goztepe | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.43 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.57 | 4.58 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.16 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 8/14 | 58% 7/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 7/14 | 50% 6/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 21% 3/14 | 25% 3/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.57 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 2.36 | |
| Match total | 4.43 | 3.93 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 57% 8/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Goztepe | Trabzonspor | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.76 | 9.50 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Atilla Karaoglan Türkiye · 18 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.06league 4.45
Red cards0.22league 0.26
Cards 5+72%league 47%
Fouls25.0league 26.1
Penalties0.44league 0.27
Home wins39%league 36%
Goztepe1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D14 Sep 25A · Kayserispor1–11
Trabzonspor1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L10 May 25H · Galatasaray0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Goztepe14 games · scored 17 · conceded 7
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
6
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Trabzonspor14 games · scored 25 · conceded 12
4
0-15
3
4
16-30
5
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
Goztepe10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Trabzonspor10 games · scored 21 · conceded 11
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
