Groningen
Attack−17%
Defense risk+26%
Our take
It was too close to call.
Ajax were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 33). Absences weigh more on Ajax. Ajax were without S. Berghuis and Caio Henrique. Groningen had 7 days of rest, Ajax 7.8 and had to travel 147 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel147 kmRest days7 · 7.8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Groningen37%
Draw23%
Ajax40%
Groningen33%
Draw27%
Ajax40%
Groningen35%
Draw23%
Ajax42%
Groningen29%
Draw22%
Ajax49%
Groningen37%
Draw24%
Ajax39%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 70%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
11°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 20 km/h
- Humidity 94%
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 51
Team strength
Groningen
Ajax
33
L90 StrengthIn forecast
51
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
53
41
AttackIn forecast
66
21
DefenceIn forecast
55
39
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAjax
Attack−1%
Defense risk+13%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
GroningenAjax
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
1.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.87
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.05
+0.55
Goals minus xGContext
+0.88
100%
Scored inContext
100%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
14.75
ShotsContext
23.75
5.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.75
40%
On target shareContext
33%
10.86
Shots in the boxContext
16.63
67%
Box shareContext
70%
17%
ConversionContext
12%
2.25
OffsidesContext
1.86
15.38
Shots allowedContext
9.38
5.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
4.29
BlocksContext
2.13
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.14
67%
Save rateContext
76%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
434
PassesContext
597
353
Accurate passesContext
532
81%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.02
8.50
FoulsContext
8.63
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
9.63
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.59
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.55
90%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.80
ShotsContext
22.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.20
38%
On target shareContext
32%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
15.20
64%
Box shareContext
68%
16%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.13
14.60
Shots allowedContext
9.50
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.89
BlocksContext
2.40
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
416
PassesContext
580
334
Accurate passesContext
512
80%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.84
Team ratingContext
7.05
8.90
FoulsContext
8.90
10.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
LDDWW
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 39 · 8 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected
Ajax
LWWDD
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel147 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 8 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
Ajax |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct | 7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 147 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 403 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
33H. Hateboer
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement
8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
Ajax
Confirmed XI
1M. ter Stegen(G)
5O. Wijndal
36D. Janse
30A. Bouwman
2Lucas Rosa
24J. Mokio
4S. Amrabat
18D. Klaassen
10O. Gloukh
38Marcos Leonardo
8J. Brandt
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals
Attack line −0.8% · Defence line −2.6% of weighted minutes
- DEF Tyrique Mercera Rotation 6.37 Def −1.8%
- MID T. Hernes Rotation 6.44 Att −0.8% Def −0.5%
- DEF Elvis Van der Laan Depth 6.48 Def −0.3%
Ajax
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.05 goals
Attack line −29.4% · Defence line −14.2% of weighted minutes
- ATT S. Berghuis Core 7.28 Att −22.5%
- DEF Caio Henrique Starter 6.52 Def −9.9%
- DEF A. Gaaei Rotation 6.77 Def −4.3%
- ATT K. Dolberg Rotation 6.74 Att −6.8%
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+1.7 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Ajax-1.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-1
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.50
Ajax · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 3.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | W 5–1 A | D 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 3–0 H | W 2–0 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 H | W 5–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–5 A | L 1–3 H |
| Points | 6 of 12 · 1.50 per game | 7 of 12 · 1.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Groningen wins1 draws3 Ajax wins
Goals per game1.20 – 2.00
Over 2.560%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 21 May 2026Ajax2–0Groningen
- 7 Mar 2026Groningen3–1Ajax
- 2 Dec 2025Ajax2–0Groningen
- 14 May 2025Groningen2–2Ajax
- 6 Oct 2024Ajax3–1Groningen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 75% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 63% | 75% | |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 75% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Groningen | Ajax | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 70% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 7.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 2.57 | |
| Match total | 9.38 | 9.86 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 6/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.38 | 1.88 | |
| Match total | 2.38 | 3.88 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 13% 1/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Groningen | Ajax | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 7.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 3.38 | |
| Match total | 9.89 | 10.51 | 10.41 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.78 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 51 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.86league 2.76
Red cards0.22league 0.08
Cards 5+25%league 15%
Fouls21.9league 21.2
Penalties0.18league 0.24
Home wins41%league 33%
Groningen3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 0.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- D12 Sep 26A · GO Ahead Eagles1–10
- D1 Mar 25H · Twente1–12
- L22 Sep 24A · Heerenveen1–25
Ajax8 with this referee
Record4-2-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds1
- W30 Aug 26A · Telstar4–00
- D16 Mar 25H · AZ Alkmaar2–22
- W9 Feb 25A · Fortuna Sittard2–03
- L18 Aug 24A · NAC Breda1–21
- W27 Jan 24A · Heracles4–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen8 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
4
3
0-15
5
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax8 games · scored 22 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
5
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Ajax10 games · scored 24 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
6
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
5
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
