Groningen vs GO Ahead Eagles – 11 Apr 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Apr 11 · 19:00 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 10th · 41 pts · 29 played LWDWW

First leg1–1 0–0Full time

GO Ahead Eagles 11th · 35 pts · 29 played WLWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Groningen. Groningen had 7.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 6.3 and had to travel 111 km.

Away travel111 kmRest days7.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen58%

Draw21%

GO Ahead Eagles21%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.29

Groningen47%

Draw26%

GO Ahead Eagles27%

Expected goals 1.57 – 1.14

Groningen57%

Draw21%

GO Ahead Eagles21%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.28

Groningen49%

Draw23%

GO Ahead Eagles28%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.45

Groningen57%

Draw22%

GO Ahead Eagles21%

Expected goals 2.14 – 1.25

Over 2.5 68% Both score 65% Likeliest score 2–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 57

Team strength

Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 25

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

41 AttackIn forecast 29

21 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Groningen

GO Ahead Eagles

1.45 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.72

1.28 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.55

1.66 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72

-0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.53

79% Scored inContext 83%

31% Clean sheetsContext 24%

15.34 ShotsContext 11.14

6.04 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.29

38% On target shareContext 46%

9.11 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

58% Box shareContext 70%

9% ConversionContext 16%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.78

11.14 Shots allowedContext 17.72

4.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.52

2.96 BlocksContext 5.93

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.21

68% Save rateContext 76%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

411 PassesContext 410

330 Accurate passesContext 334

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.88

10.52 FoulsContext 8.93

9.93 Fouls sufferedContext 10.41

1.66 Yellow cardsContext 1.45

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.27

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70

-0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.73

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

15.40 ShotsContext 11.70

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.11

34% On target shareContext 47%

9.89 Shots in the boxContext 9.56

59% Box shareContext 75%

10% ConversionContext 17%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.57

11.90 Shots allowedContext 17.60

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

3.40 BlocksContext 5.70

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.10

70% Save rateContext 79%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

405 PassesContext 363

322 Accurate passesContext 284

80% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.30 FoulsContext 8.60

9.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km308 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

GO Ahead Eagles

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel111 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	308 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	11.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

18T. Land 8T. de Jonge

14J. Schreuders 17D. van der Werff 10Y. Taha

26T. van Bergen

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

GO Ahead Eagles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

22J. De Busser(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4J. Kramer 26J. Dirksen 2A. Sampsted

7J. Breum 21M. Meulensteen

17M. Suray 16V. Edvardsen 10S. Tengstedt

9S. Sigurðarson

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.6 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
GO Ahead Eagles-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.50points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 6-3-5
Scored: 1.64
Conceded: 1.00

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 0.79points per game · 14 away games

W-D-L: 2-5-7
Scored: 1.21
Conceded: 1.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles
Telstar	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H	D 1–1 HL 2–4 A
AZ Alkmaar	W 3–0 HL 1–4 A	D 2–2 A
PEC Zwolle	D 1–1 AD 2–2 H	W 5–0 HW 2–0 A
Ajax	W 3–1 HL 0–2 A	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
FC Volendam	L 2–3 AW 3–0 H	D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
Twente	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H	L 1–4 HL 0–2 A
Utrecht	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 HL 2–4 A	L 1–2 A
Sparta Rotterdam	L 0–2 AL 0–2 H	L 0–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A	D 2–2 HD 2–2 A
Heerenveen	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H	L 1–3 HD 2–2 A
NAC Breda	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A	W 6–0 HL 0–1 A
Excelsior	W 2–0 A	W 1–0 AW 2–0 H
NEC Nijmegen	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 H
Feyenoord	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 AW 2–1 H
Heracles	W 4–0 H	W 4–0 HL 2–4 A
Points	40 of 84 · 1.43 per game	34 of 84 · 1.21 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Groningen wins1 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%

21 Dec 2025GO Ahead Eagles1–1Groningen
18 Jan 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–1Groningen
29 Sep 2024Groningen0–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.45	1.72
Conceded per game	1.28	1.55
Match goals	2.72	3.28	3.51
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	52%	62%	68%
Over 3.5	21%	48%
Both teams scored	52%	59%	65%
Clean sheets	31%	24%
Failed to score	21%	17%
Games	29	29

	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.20
Match goals	3.00	3.20	3.51
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	6.18	5.21
Corners conceded	4.75	5.72
Match total	10.93	10.93	10.28
Over 8.5	75% 21/28	83% 24/29
Over 9.5	50% 14/28	66% 19/29
Over 10.5	43% 12/28	52% 15/29
Cards
Cards	1.72	1.59
Opponent cards	1.52	1.59
Match total	3.24	3.18	3.36
Over 3.5	41% 12/29	38% 11/29
Over 4.5	21% 6/29	21% 6/29

	Groningen	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	7.00	5.20
Corners conceded	5.70	6.50
Match total	12.70	11.70	10.28
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.60
Opponent cards	0.90	1.20
Match total	2.70	2.80	3.36
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 57 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.21league 3.19

Red cards0.14league 0.17

Cards 5+26%league 27%

Fouls22.2league 21.3

Penalties0.25league 0.23

Home wins49%league 45%

Groningen2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 0

D2 Nov 25H · Twente1–12
L23 Nov 24A · PSV Eindhoven0–50

GO Ahead Eagles7 with this referee

Record3-2-2 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

L14 Dec 25A · Twente0–23
W9 Nov 25H · Feyenoord2–12
D11 May 25A · PEC Zwolle1–12
D12 Apr 25A · NAC Breda1–13
L23 Feb 25A · Ajax0–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.