Groningen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Groningen were slight favourites.
Groningen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 17). Absences weigh more on PEC Zwolle. Groningen had 6.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 5.1 and had to travel 85 km.
Away travel85 kmRest days6.1 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Groningen59%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle21%
Groningen54%
Draw24%
PEC Zwolle22%
Groningen57%
Draw21%
PEC Zwolle22%
Groningen51%
Draw23%
PEC Zwolle27%
Groningen59%
Draw20%
PEC Zwolle21%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Groningen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsMartin Van den Kerkhof
- Cards per match 2.5
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 41
Team strength
Groningen
PEC Zwolle
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
17
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
41
AttackIn forecast
17
21
DefenceIn forecast
14
25
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPEC Zwolle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
GroningenPEC Zwolle
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.83
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
2.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.62
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.20
100%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.83
5.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.83
36%
On target shareContext
35%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
66%
Box shareContext
55%
14%
ConversionContext
9%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.33
Shots allowedContext
21.17
6.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
3.20
BlocksContext
6.17
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
67%
Save rateContext
64%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
422
PassesContext
328
341
Accurate passesContext
246
81%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.61
8.17
FoulsContext
11.17
10.33
Fouls sufferedContext
9.83
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.00
1.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
90%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.90
ShotsContext
9.50
4.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
38%
On target shareContext
38%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
5.30
64%
Box shareContext
54%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
14.70
Shots allowedContext
19.10
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
3.00
BlocksContext
5.30
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.30
61%
Save rateContext
61%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
402
PassesContext
352
318
Accurate passesContext
271
79%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.58
9.00
FoulsContext
11.10
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Groningen
WLLDD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km221 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
PEC Zwolle
LWLDL
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel85 km256 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 4 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Groningen |
PEC Zwolle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 5.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 85 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 221 km | 256 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 22.9 | 22.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Groningen
Confirmed XI
1E. Vaessen(G)
4M. Csinger
5M. Rente
3T. Blokzijl
14J. Schreuders
24P. Clement
8T. de Jonge
11J. Ondrejka
26T. van Bergen
17D. van der Werff
9B. Willumsson
PEC Zwolle
Confirmed XI
1J. Schendelaar(G)
2S. Floranus
24N. Viergever
28S. Graves
3O. Aertssen
34N. Fichtinger
22I. Cissoko
8T. Sommer
25T. Oosting
11D. Mbayo
10Koen Kostons
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Groningen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PEC Zwolle
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Groningen+1.9 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- PEC Zwolle-1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Groningen · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
PEC Zwolle · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Groningen | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| Twente | D 2–2 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Groningen wins3 draws1 PEC Zwolle wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.25
Over 2.525%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 13 Mar 2026PEC Zwolle1–1Groningen
- 23 Nov 2025Groningen2–2PEC Zwolle
- 18 May 2025PEC Zwolle2–0Groningen
- 8 Dec 2024Groningen0–0PEC Zwolle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 2.83 | |
| Match goals | 4.17 | 3.83 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 60% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 8.17 | |
| Match total | 9.17 | 12.00 | 10.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Groningen | PEC Zwolle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 7.40 | |
| Match total | 10.23 | 11.00 | 10.73 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 2.40 | 2.30 | 2.57 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Martin Van den Kerkhof Netherlands · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.27league 2.59
Red cards0.27league 0.06
Cards 5+15%league 13%
Fouls18.5league 20.4
Penalties0.29league 0.22
Home wins39%league 28%
Groningen1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Feb 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–12
PEC Zwolle3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Mar 26A · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- L24 Jan 26A · NEC Nijmegen1–22
- L25 Nov 23H · Waalwijk1–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Groningen6 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
4
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
PEC Zwolle6 games · scored 6 · conceded 17
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Groningen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
5
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
PEC Zwolle10 games · scored 10 · conceded 28
2
0-15
3
5
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
7
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
